Friday, January 01, 2021

4Q 2020 Investment Strategy Update

What can I say, what a dramatic 2020 is finally coming to an end! A quick recap of a few notable event which shapes the world this year, in sequence of importance in my opinion:

  1. COVID-19 pandemic still raging in many parts of the world since Jan 2020. As of 31-Dec, 83.3 million people are infected, resulting in 1.8 million deaths. COVID-19 has now become the 9th highest death record pandemic in human history
  2. Global Stock Market plunge as COVID-19 spreads around the world in unprecedented speed, entering bear territory in record number of days. Countries globally enter lockdown period, bringing economic activities to a halt
  3. USA presidential election, which is really good enough to make a soap opera. President Trump unwilling to concede defeat, spreading unproven statement about election fraud attempting to overturn election results, some of which is plain ridiculous. Example include: Considering martial law in the battleground state to rerun election, Republican-led state legislatures to choose the members of the Electoral College, overturning the will of voters...etc
  4. Global Stock Market rebounded from the lows to enter bull market as the first wave of COVID-19 pass. Pfizer Biontech and Moderna achieve 95% effectiveness COVID-19 vaccine in less than 1 year of R&D and began distribution in Dec 2020
  5. Working from Home and digitalization become the new normal
  6. Record number of airlines either declaring bankrupt or nationalized as a result of travel restriction globally due to COVID-19. Tourism industry become severely impacted, leading to record number of job loss and unemployment globally
DJI ended at 30606, an increase of 2825 points (+10.16%) compared to 3Q 2020. For Singapore, STI ended at 2843, an increase of 377 points (+15.28%) compared to last quarter. For me, I have also went through a rather dramatic year, in the sense that I have watched a record number of dramas while coop up at home to stay away from the COVID-19 virus. =) About future potential market direction, my view is that in the next 6 months, as more of the Pfizer Biontech and Moderna vaccines reach more countries, the COVID-19 pandemic can be brought more or less under control. In this context, current battered hospitality stocks could benefit as tourism restarts again, though to reach pre-COVID level, it is estimated it will have to wait till 2022 earliest. Personally, I have already loaded Marriott during the big crash, waiting for the day (hopefully in a few months' time) when this pandemic is over to cash in some of the profits.

With 2020 drawing to a close, it is time for a review against my 3 year plan (Next 3 years (2020 - 2022) Investment Plan) set back in Dec 2019 and below are my result:

Original 2020-2022 plan: 
  1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts 
  2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.50% in 2020, 4.20% in 2021, 4.80% in 2022.
End 2020 result: 
  1. 57.82% Equity, 42.18% Reits/Trusts 
  2. 82.82% SG Equity, 17.18% USA Equity
  3. Portfolio Yield at 2.65% in 2020 (+0.21% from 2019, but miss 2020 3.50% target)
Verdict: Miss Target

Below is my end 2020 portfolio snapshot:


Total dividend received in 2020: $3,313.53 (~$276.12/month)

Despite 2020 being a challenging year, I still managed to grow my overall portfolio value. This year, our very own MAS has also encouraged companies to conserve cash by reducing profit distribution to shareholders. Some of the companies have went even further by re-starting script dividend in lieu of cash. As I will most likely take up the script dividend option if there is such a choice, I do see that my dividend received in 2021 will most likely take a hit. Not to worry though, a small hit in 2021 means more dividend to be received once things are back to normal. Enough chatter, below are my transaction for this quarter:

Transaction 1: Participate in IREIT Global Rights Issue in October. 

Good yield and attractive rights issue price @ $0.49, what more can I say? Just subscribe and apply for additional shares!

Transaction 2: Participate in Fraser CenterPoint Trust Rights Issue in October. 

Taking opportunity of this pandemic to purchase the rest of Asia Mall shares not held by FCT, bringing in 5 additional malls and 1 commercial plaza into its portfolio. I find the opportunity to grow its DPU from the purchase a good and sound investment, hence subscribing for all my share of rights. Welcome Tiong Bahru Plaza, White Sands, Hougang Mall, Century Square, Tampines 1 and Central Plaza to the Fraser CenterPoint family.

Transaction 3: Participate in Credit Bureau Asia IPO in December. 

A fairly resilient business model against recession, no debt and a cash cow generator, potentially giving 3.46% yield and looking to expand overseas. Decided to invest in the company for the opportunity to grow further in the region. For more details, you can refer here. 

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch DBS shares in December. 

I believe there is still further room for growth for DBS at the current $25++ price, especially so once the economy starts recovering post pandemic. Personally, I am looking at a TP of $30 to entice me to start consider taking profit. For now, just buy, hold and take the script dividend.

Transaction 5: Bought 1 batch Singtel shares in December. 

Severely impacted due to travel restriction, international roaming revenue almost grind to a halt, leaving the company surviving on domestic business. Dividend distribution are also cut to conserve cash. Current $2.30++ price do not take into account the value of Australia and Singapore business. An attractive price to accumulate and what else... hold and take the script dividend.

Transaction 6: Bought 1 batch China Everbright shares in December. 

Continue accumulating good quality company giving potential 6.09% yield. As a China government linked wastewater treatment company, I can hardly see it goes wrong, coupled with the fact that tariff treatment price will increase with China increasingly higher wastewater discharge standards.

That is all for now. See you all in Q1 2021 update and thank you for reading thus far. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year. Stay healthy, stay safe, stay mask up and may God Bless with a good year ahead~

Friday, December 18, 2020

Recommended Chinese Drama for Circuit Breaker Part 3

With the announcement of Circuit Breaker Phase 3 starting 28 Dec 2020, things will hopefully gradually return back to normal, though safe distancing measures and wearing of mask will continue as the new normal. This will be my last part recommendation for dramas to watch to pass your time. Enjoy while the Work from Home time last. =) What a dramatic year literally, with COVID-19 pandemic still raging around the world 1 year on and for me, record number of Chinese dramas watched!

听雪楼 - 56 集

三千鸦杀 - 30 集

将军在上 - 60 集

少年游之一寸相思 - 43 集

香蜜沉沉烬如霜 - 63 集

锦绣未央 - 54 集

镇魂 - 40 集

琅琊榜 - 54 集

琅琊榜2之风起长林 - 50 集

Wednesday, December 09, 2020

15th Year Blog Anniversary

COVID-19 pandemic is the key word this year, with many people around the world taking Working From Home as the New Norm. By God's grace, this blog is still running and I am still employed. While we do not know how long this pandemic may last, but I am at peace that everything will turn out right in the end. Have Faith, Stay Safe! AND MASK UP!

Some Statistic: 

Page Count: 69044 +6658 

Year on Year increase: +4113 +161.61%

Back to the Past - Doraemon’s Time-Travelling Adventures in SG

Doraemon is in town, having landed at our very own National Museum of Singapore. For more details, you can take a look at the organizer website

Event Date: 31 Oct 2020 - 27 Dec 2020

Time: 10am – 7pm (Last admission is at 6.30pm)

Cost: Free Admission (General admission tickets are required for entry into the exhibition galleries)

Brought our *OEE* to visit this cute robotic cat and glad that he have such a good time making friends with it. Besides the outdoor displays, there are also Doraemon hidden within the internal exhibits. Have fun looking for them! At least there isn't much crowd given it is a weekday afternoon....

Samples of Indoor Exhibits





Samples of Outdoor Exhibits



Tuesday, December 01, 2020

Credit Bureau Asia Limited IPO

 

For details on this listing, I find Singapore IPO has done a pretty good analysis. You can read it all here.

Key Fact Summary:

  1. Economic recession resilient business model
  2. #1 FI Data player in Singapore with 99.9% market share and 31 Credit Bureau members (as at June 2020)
  3. #2 Non-FI Data player in Singapore via D&B Singapore, offering online instant national and international reports to customers
  4. #1 and Sole FI Data player in Cambodia with 165 Credit Bureau members (as at June 2020), with a successful expansion track record of generating positive PAT and cash flows from operations within two years of operations
  5. #1 and Sole FI Data player in Myanmar with up to 220 potential Credit Bureau members (as at December 2018), and potential to replicate Cambodia’s business model in Myanmar
  6. Dividend payout ratio 90% (Potential yield 3.46%)
  7. No Debt
IPO close (Public trench) on 01-Dec, 12pm.

The public trench (1.5 million share) is only open for 5 days. Seems they are pretty confident of covering the public offering given the small amount available. Heard that the vendor placement book closure was closed 1 day early. I am subscribing via the placement trench. Given the low interest environment, this looks good for long term holding.

Thursday, October 01, 2020

3Q 2020 Investment Strategy Update

With most of the countries busy combating COVID-19 cases, technologies shares are the focus this quarter. We have seen heavy buy-ins over at NASDAQ, while looming on the horizon, investors are getting worried over the 2nd infection wave seen in Europe. Upcoming USA Presidential Election is increasingly taking central stage. The conclusion of the first presidential candidate debate yesterday showcase Trump's ugly un-presidential "win at all cost" tactics. Depending on who becomes the next USA president, do expect more volatility in the stock market until November.

DJI ended at 27781, an increase of 1969 points (+7.62%) compared to 2Q 2020. For Singapore, STI ended at 2466, a decrease of 123 points (-4.75%) compared to last quarter. For me, most of the actions are seen over at the USA market. I have cash out my Apple shares as I saw their prices sky rocketed after their impressive quarterly result and reaching an insanely high level. After it corrected about 15%, I buy in some of the shares again as I still believe in the growth of the company. Below is just a summary of what I have done in 2Q:

Transaction 1: Sold all Apple shares in July.

After their solid quarterly result on 31-Jul, share price sky rocketed and reached an insanely high level (PE:32x), where I sold off all my holding to cash in the profits.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Visa shares in August.

As more countries start loosening their internal COVID-19 restriction, economies are expected to re-bounce with more people coming out for dining and shopping (and travel giving it a few more months down the road). These are expected to lead to an increase in debit and credit card transactions. VISA should do well post COVID-19.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Apple shares in September.

After correcting 14%, I repurchased some Apple shares back as I still believe in the growth of the company, especially with the next release of iPhone 12 in Oct, where it is much expected to be 5G and leading to a pend up phone renewal rate.

That is all for now. See you all in Q4 2020 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Recommended Chinese and Korean Drama for Circuit Breaker Part 2

Singapore government has announced that up to 50% of the workforce can return back to office starting 28-Sep. While some of us are still working from home, here are my recommended Chinese & Korean Drama (part 2) to help you pass your time at home:

如懿传 - 87 集

双世宠妃 - 24 集

双世宠妃Ⅱ - 30 集

扶摇 - 66 集

民国少年侦探社 - 30 集

Hotel Del Luna - 16 集 (Korean)

Crash Landing on You - 16 集 (Korean)

It's Okay to Not Be Okay - 16 集 (Korean)

陈情令 - 50 集

Saturday, August 08, 2020

Recommended Chinese Drama for Circuit Breaker

Having spent the past 6 months working from home, "home" has become a place where I spent 90% of my daily time in. Finding entertainment to keep me occupied (Other than work and the little one) has become increasingly challenging and important before I suffered from "Home Sickness". Chinese dramas have become a good source of outlet to keep our mind focus before our mind started running wild from boredom. Well, here are my list of Chinese Dramas that are worth your time to spend on, having tried and tested them for the past 6 months:

绝代双骄 (2020)

倚天屠龙记 (2019)

三生三世十里桃花

庆余年

射雕英雄传 (2017)

新萧十一郎 (2016)

东宫

芸汐传

传闻中的陈芊芊

知否?知否?应是绿肥红瘦

天盛长歌

Anymore good chinese dramas to recommend? I am running out of titles to watch. =p