Saturday, November 19, 2022

Next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Investment Plan

2022 has become a year of upheaval. First the euphoria of post COVID-19 when countries started re-opening and economy starts picking up. Then came the Russia-Ukraine war where it drove up the prices of almost everything, sending inflation rates sky rocketing and countries on the heels of raising interest rates to tame inflation. Now, investors are in jitters that interest rates are increasing at too fast a pace that will send economies into recession and in the process sending equities on a downhill slippery slope!

Again, it is unlikely I will reach my 2022 goal set back in 2019. My portfolio dividend yield this year will probably be in the 3.2% to 3.5% range, way off the ambitious target of 4.8%. Re-balancing a portfolio with some dead weight stocks is not easy after all, while waiting for Noble Group, KrisEnergy and Eagle H Trust to officially delist from SGX. At least I managed to increase my dividend yield from 2.44% from 3 years ago.

Now, back to my main objective of investment - earning passive income. Again, I will be using the insurance projected returns as a guide, which typically ranges from 3.25% to 4.75% currently. For the next 3 year, I will set a target to get a better yield than the insurance projected returns (Example: 4.8%). I think this will be a very challenging target as I have never achieve it before. Well, here you are, the next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Plan:

  1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts
  2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.80% in 2023, 4.30% in 2024, 4.80% in 2025.
I will likely to continue load up on high dividend yield REITS (Looking at US Reits listed on SGX) and Singtel (if price is below $3.00) till I reached at least 10k shares each counter, so that these counters can participate in the Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) Program. Other potential target also include DBS if it fall below $35.00, MIT and FCT.

Sunday, October 09, 2022

Fun @ Singapore Zoo

Time flies! The last time *OEE* is at the zoo, it was 19 months ago, where he has to be carried and had no interest in seeing the animals. This time, he gets to walk around (most of the time insisting not to hold daddy and mummy hands) and spent time observing animals in the enclosure. He can now sit through the showtimes looking at the shows instead of dozing off comfortably in daddy's arms. *OEE* also has a particular interest with the orange trams, and would stop and point at every tram that comes along the way! Thank God for the great weather where the sun is kept hidden behind clouds during the time we are in the zoo. And yes, Kids under 3 is still Free Admission.

Nothing much has changed in the zoo. The new developments are the expansion of Kidsworld where the new facility is currently under construction. Most of their toilets are newly renovated and the route to the zoo from the multi-storey carpark has changed, with the Bird Paradise opening next year. We happened to see wild monkeys in the zoo this time, and visitors are advised to stay away from them, least the monkeys start getting aggressive with the uninvited attention. A great, fun day at the Singapore Zoo with *OEE*!

Like a boss inspecting a peacock running across

Looking at the majestic lion with interest

Saturday, October 01, 2022

3Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

What a combination of disaster. Russia war with Ukraine still grinds on, stubbornly high inflation has lead to central bank raising rates (0.75%) 3 times in a row. Businesses are forecasting recession and started laying off employees. Chances of USA entering recession in the next 12 months has increased from 40% to 52% just a few days ago. Market has been grinding down for the past 4 weeks with no ends in sight. What a disaster!

DJI ended at 28725, a decrease of 2050 points (-6.66%) compared to 2Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3130, an increase of 28 points (+0.90%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market bucks the global trends and are impacted lesser due to STI having a high weightage for banking counters (accounting for 42.5% of STI weightage), as rising interest rates is a positive for banks since they stand to earn more profits from the widening NIM. Ever since Putin started the war on 24-Feb-2022, DJI has lost 7613 points (-20.95%) compared to the end of 2021, while STI has increased 7 points (+0.22%) instead. For this quarter, I am just sitting ducks collecting dividends and taking opportunistic additions for counters that I deem have high growth potential:

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Singtel shares in July.

Rejoice! India Airtel has turnaround from loss to profits as competition eases and competitors started raising their product offering prices. Singtel and Grab GXS Bank has launched in August and is a positive catalyst for additional profits. Will continue to add if shares price is below $3.00.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch HPH Trust shares in July.

Management has guided they are continuing their debt reduction plan at a tune of HKD $1.00 billion a year. With the rising interest rate and plans for expansion of berths in the next few years, the distributable amount is expected to increase. Buy in today to enjoy the fruits later.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch China Everbright Water shares in July.

Last buy in for this counter as it has hit my internal target investable amount. Expecting China will continue to focus on Industrial Wastewater Management as the economy develops. This counter should do well in the long term as they continue to apply for price adjustment (increase) for their treatment services to combat inflation.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch OxPay Financial shares in July.

I continue to be sold on the company plans for riding on the digital economy wave as a financial services technology platform provider. The only obstacle now is if the company is able to onboard more partners to use their service and expand regionally. If they succeed, it will be a cash generating machine similar to VISA.

Transaction 5: Bought 1 batch Man Utd shares in July.

With poor performance, guess the end of road is near for Man Utd Glazer to sell off all their shares. Recently, news article reported that 3.75 billion pounds will be enough to entice the Glazer family to sell. Now, I am just waiting for the White Knight to appear.... 

That is all for now. See you all in Q4 2022 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Wednesday, August 03, 2022

Four Points by Sheraton Riverview Staycation

With the opening of Singapore borders, the hotel room rates are constantly on a northward trajectory since May 2022. Not wanting to spend too much money on staycation, we chose the Four Points by Sheraton Riverview since it is the cheapest Marriott hotel available in Singapore and we get to have our breakfast and dinner with the package. However, God seems to have other plans for us. 2 weeks before our stay, we received an email from the hotel that says our package has been dis-continued with immediate effect! In return, they offered us a reduced rate, changed our room from twins to King, allowed us a late check-out at 6pm, and gave us a $96 dining credit since we cannot take the Mookata counter offer as we have a toddler with us. Thank God! =)

We arrived a bit early than the official check-in time at 12pm and was informed our room is ready. Check in was smooth and we got the City View King Room. Room is clean and lovely but since this is the cheapest among the Marriott Hotels, don't expect much. We need to call the housekeeping for extra towels and bath robes (Not given, you have to request for it). Not wanting to waste more time, we headed straight to the pool on the 5th floor. Truthfully, the pool is quite small and don't expect it to accommodate more then 8 people. No one is manning the towel counter and it is pretty much self-service.

At night, we took a stroll along the Singapore River since the Alexandra Park Connector is easily accessible via the 4 Points eatery. Night scenery is not bad and we chanced upon fireworks display from the National Day Parade Rehearsal.

Breakfast buffet has a good spread of food. The downside is that the 4 Points eatery sitting capacity is not big. If you will like some time to have your breakfast, do come early. The café is still full with hotel guests right to the end of breakfast time at 10am.

To use our dining credits, we tried their "Old Time Bak Kut Teh", "Nasi Goreng Istimewa", and "Signature Baby Rock Lobster Laksa". The Bak Kut Teh in my opinion is not worth the price. I find the rice is dry and hard, the meat is too fat and not as tender. The soup is also on the peppery side. For the Baby Rock Lobster Laksa, tasted not bad with the thick Bee Hoon and they served you a full size baby lobster cut into two halves. For the Nasi Goreng, tasted not too bad as well. I personally find the chicken is the best among the ingredients.

That basically sums up our staycation. Wonder when will the next staycation be?

Friday, July 01, 2022

2Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

Russia's war with Ukraine slowly grinds on into the 5th month, with failure not an option to Putin. With this war, food, crop and oil price escalated, causing high inflation unseen in many countries globally. To combat high inflation, central banks have been aggressively raising interest rate (June - 0.75%, forecast July - 0.75%, forecast September - 0.5%), hoping to cool the economy down. This however, have a damping effect on equity, as rising interest rate means a drop in consumer consumption (Yes, all your loans on floating rate are going to get more expensive!) which has a high risk of tipping the economy into recession. Currently, analyst is predicting a 40% chance of USA entering recession in the next 12 months and this is reflective in NASDAQ (entered bear 2 months ago); S&P 500 (entered bear 2 weeks ago); DJI (narrowly avoided bear 1 week ago by 400 points).

FYI: Bear Market refers to a drop of at least 20% from the index peak.

With the war seemingly not ending anytime soon (only God knows when and how this will end), let us spend a few mins in prayer for the people of Ukraine. May God in His sovereign will put an end to the Russian act of aggression and this unjustified war. May God in His mercy bring light to the people of Ukraine suffering the effect of war in this dark hour. May God also bless the people of the world with great health and protection against the Covid-19 virus that is ravaging the face of the Earth. Amen

Face with market uncertainty and volatility, I guess it is time we go back to the company fundamentals, where good and sound company will eventually pull through any crisis. DJI ended at 30775, a decrease of 3903 points (-11.25%) compared to 1Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3102, an decrease of 306 points (-8.98%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market are not spared from the high inflation rate concerns and rising interest rates, moving in line with the USA market, though for banking counters (accounting for 43.3% of STI weightage), rising interest rates is a positive for them as they stand to earn more profits from the widening NIM. For this quarter, not much actions from me except taking opportunistic additions for counters that I deem have high growth potential:

Transaction 1: Bought 2 batch Grab shares in April and May.

US investors still seem to not have confidence in Grab, continuing dumping its share to an all time low of $2.32 on 26 May 2022. For me, given they have won the digital bank license for Singapore and Malaysia speaks volume. Anyway, Grab will be focusing on returning to profitability by cutting down on consumer incentives. From end user point of view, this has seem to take effect after 19-May as the discounts given is not as high as per 3 months ago. Example: Self collect on GrabFood is now only entitled to 15% discount compared to previous 20%, unless you purchase their subscription, then you are entitled to 20% discount. Anyway, GxS bank is preparing to start operation soon in Singapore in the next few months. Hopefully, this will contribute to their bottom line profit.

Transaction 2: Exit Amara totally in June (at a loss).

High number of director resignations, plus the review for their flagship hotel in SG is not that great on major hotel booking websites, guess I better run first before more problems start surfacing. Having held this counter for close to 9 years, I don't think the management will be privatizing the company anytime soon.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch OxPay Financial shares in June.

I got won over by this up and coming business plan. Basically, they provide Merchant Payment Services (MPS) and Digital Commerce Enabling Solutions (DCES). Whenever a customer uses their system for payment, they will get a portion of the fee (~0.5%) as payment. Think of the card terminals and the software facilitating the payment between the customer, merchant and their banks. As long as their customer base is huge, this should be a stable cash generating machine to provide dividends.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch DBS shares in June.

Interest rates are rising, which will increase DBS Net Interest Margin (Profits) due to increasing loan interest rate. It was already reported a few days ago that all SG banks has revised their home loan interest rate up. Buying to hold for long term with the hindsight that business are growing and dividends declared are increasing yearly.

Marriott has restarted their dividend payout, and share buybacks will soon follow. I was right about Marriott TP. It did rise to $190.30 (>$185 which I predicted) on 20-Apr-22, before Putin's war destroyed everything. Oh well, guess I have to hold the shares a little longer. That is all for now. See you all in Q3 2022 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Tuesday, May 03, 2022

Daycation - Day out at the South (and East)

Since there is a long weekend and RL has invited us to visit her at the Westin Singapore while A is busy with helping out his friend wedding, we decided to bring *OEE* out to meet AM and play at the Westin infinity pool. Unlike JW Marriott South Beach, the water at the infinity pool is not that cold (and not that windy), which we are glad and *OEE* and AM have fun playing with the water all to themselves. Unfortunately, the infinity pool does not have a baby area and any child that is inside the pool needs constant supervision. View from the top is not bad, as we have a perfect view of the Singapore Flyer, the National Stadium and the sea.

Lunch was at Suntec Food Republic Blanco Beef Noodle and we are presently surprised how much Suntec has changed. Half the shops there are not what we remembered from years ago. The little ones are going cranky after lunch as it approaches their nap time and we went back to the hotel for them to take their nap. Dinner was at Changi Jewel Dian Xiao Er (An impromptu decision) where A joined us after the wedding lunch. It was really rare to see so many people out in the Jewel mall after the COVID restriction was lifted last week. Overall, a day well spent.

Monday, April 04, 2022

St Regis Staycation + Botanic Garden Visit

This is our 2nd staycation at St Regis after 8 months with *mds* and *OEE*. Little did we know that we are assigned to the same hotel room as last time. Room 1506, I will remember that. Same as last time, we chose St Regis for staycation was due to the promotion "Live Exquisite 32-Hour Stay" on offer:

  • Early check-in at 10:00am
  • Late check-out at 6:00pm
  • Epicurean breakfast at Brasserie Les Saveurs for 2 adults
  • Signature St. Regis Butler Service
However, this time round, one of the services on offer has changed:
  • Complimentary (unlimited) drinks is only offered based on arrival and during 6am - 11am.
So after COVID-19, they have removed the all day complimentary drink services, which is kind of sad as we are all looking forward to their hot chocolate!

Same view as before. Nice scenery!

This time round, we got a fruit platter instead of brownies

As we have some time in the afternoon, we decided to bring *OEE* to botanic garden to have a little evening walk. First day after mask wearing is optional outdoors. Still not many people around and the garden air is refreshing after the rain

We had a good walk before having porridge at Mui Kee and took a Grab back to hotel as *OEE* is too tired to walk further. Daddy ended up 抱抱 *OEE* to travel from point to point. Next morning was spent at the pool after breakfast and *OEE* really enjoys his time water playing. Lunch was ordered from Grab before we checked out at 6pm.