1Q 2023 Investment Strategy Update

What a curveball that history throws at us. Just when we thought we have seen the last of COVID-19 crisis, the world is opening up, economy is picking up, interest rate is rising to tamp the hot economy, then came the sudden news of the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank after a bank run, marking the second-largest bank failure in United States history and the largest since the 2007–2008 financial crisis. 2 days later, Signature Bank also failed, and followed by Credit Suisse crisis 7 days later, with UBS taking over the company to save it from failure. This cast jittery repercussion around the world. Is this the start of another crisis? Or is this just a blip in the market? Only time will tell. As of now, investors are staying on the sideline, waiting to see how this situation will play out.

DJI ended at 33274, an increase of 127 points (+0.38%) compared to 4Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3258, an increase of 7 points (+0.21%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market has the 3 big banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC accounting for 43.5% of STI weightage) to thank for, keeping the index stable due to their strong fundamentals.

For this quarter, not much action from me, except trying to play out if Glazer indeed will call an end to their relationship with Man United. I personally think at the end, they will leave Man Utd, but not before getting the highest bid for their shares:

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Man Utd shares in January. Sold 1 batch in February. Bought 1 batch in March.

Buying in thinking Glazer will set a dateline for initial bid submission, which came true. Amid rumors of the amount of initial bid (4.5B pounds), sold them in February after news emerge that Glazer might not be selling after all as the bids are way below their expectation (6.0B pounds). Glad did not make a loss. Buy in again in March before the second bid submission. I highly think Glazer will narrow down to 2 preferred bidders and go for a third round. Personally, I think if Glazer do decides to sell, the final price will be between 5.5-6 billion pounds (6.6 - 7.2 billion USD) which translates to $40 - $43. We shall see in time what is the outcome.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Grab in February. 

Grab is adjusting their customer incentives system to make the business more profitable - Lesser discount on delivery fee (drop from $4 to $3 discount), lesser discount on self pick-ups (drop from 20% to 15% discount), lesser points awarded from using GrabPay. I guess these streamlining results will start to show in the subsequent quarters as they do their adjustments. Plus GXS bank is now fully operational! 

That is all for now. See you all in Q2 2023 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Bidding Jurong Bird Park Farewell

Brought *OEE* to the Jurong Bird Park before they officially closed on 03-Jan-2023. And expectedly, the place is packed with people. Well, seems like most of the folks have put COVID-19 behind us as the majority of the people are un-masked. One final look around before the place shifted to the new Mandai Area. Yup, and this time we took the tram ride one full circle.

Something new, the flamingo lounge is open for business. I must say that their Char Kuay Teow, Chicken Satay, Pisang Goreng and Popiah are not bad. However, you can skip the Prawn Mee Soup and Curry Puff, they are not so nice.

On a hindsight, *OEE* caught the COVID-19 bug the very next day... Oh well. Safe and fast recovery, my little one. Pray that God will protect you from the nasty effect of the virus.

4Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

It is the time of the year again where we take stock of what we have done and how we have performed. COVID-19 issues have taken a back seat now that countries around the world have started opening their borders since Jun 2022. China has dropped their long standing COVID Zero policy and remove their tight control on virus management starting Dec 2022. Residents within China cheered this move but globally, analyst still remains skeptical due to the usage of only vaccines developed in China, which is less effective than the ones developed by Pfizer or Modena. Now that China begins to open up, they are highly likely going to face a surge in infection rate, overwhelming their medical system and a high death rate among the elderly (which is what many countries faced during the early stage of COVID-19 pandemic 2 years ago). Russia Ukraine war is still on-going. US Federal interest rate has hiked by 4.25% in 2022, with forecast to raise another 0.75% in 2023. 2022 sure does not end on a good note, at least not something investors will cheer about.

For myself, business trip has re-started in the second half of the year, potentially exposing myself to other variants of COVID-19 in other countries. Thank God for keeping me safe, I still have not contracted the virus yet so far.

DJI ended at 33147, an increase of 4872 points (+17.23%) compared to 3Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3251, an increase of 121 points (+3.86%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market has the 3 big banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC accounting for 43.5% of STI weightage) to thank for, keeping the index stable and not fall like dominos in other countries. Overall, USA market welcome investors return to companies that largely outperform expectation but for the tech companies, they are still out in the wild (As seen DJI +17% vs Q3, compared to NASDAQ -1% vs Q3). Singapore market this quarter are relatively stagnant as the banking counters did not gain much, and the REITs are taking a beating due to the increase interest rate. For Q4, the investor community remains jittery over the potential of a world recession in 2023, with USA a 70% chance in entering a recession, up from 65% last forecasted in November.

With 2022 drawing to a close, it is time for the annual review against my 3 year plan (Next 3 years (2020 - 2022) Investment Plan) set back in Nov 2019. Below are my result:

Original 2020-2022 plan:

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts
2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.50% in 2020, 4.20% in 2021, 4.80% in 2022.

End 2022 result:

1. 55.55% Equity, 44.45% Reits/Trusts
2. 79.85% SG Equity, 20.15% USA Equity
3. Portfolio Yield at 3.58% in 2022 (+0.51% from 2021, but miss 2022 4.80% target)

Verdict: Miss Target

Below is my end 2022 portfolio snapshot:

Total dividend received in 2022: $5,655.22 (~$471.26/month)

With market retreating, if you look closely, opportunities awaits. I am closely looking at some of the USA REITS listed on SGX. Investors has been selling them due to the high interest rate the REITS are paying in US dollars and the potential of USA entering recession, affecting future yield distribution. Prices has dropped to an unprecedented low levels that most counter are on a 0.5 Price to Book ratio, with dividend as high as 15% yield! I believe most companies are sound and if you can wait for 3 years for this down cycle to recover, you will likely stand to reap the benefits. Now, enough talking, below are my transaction for this quarter:

Transaction 1: Sold 1 batch Man Utd shares in December.

Partly cashing out since Glazer announced commencing strategic alternatives with a possibility of a total sale. Their appointed advisor has placed a target of 6-7 billion pounds. Personally, I think the final price will be between 3-4 billion pounds (3.6 - 4.8 billion USD) which translates to $22 - $29.20. We shall see in time what is the outcome.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Visa shares in December.

Long term investment with the recent drop in share price. Visa has been buying back their shares every quarter and with such a cash cow generating machine, if you have holding power, share price are bound to increase in the long term with a smaller pool of shares in the market as time goes on.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Prime US REIT shares in December.

USA REITS listed on SGX has been given a hammering in the last 4 months, with the Feds aggressively increasing interest rates, leading to a declining pool of cash available for distribution. In addition, USA is now forecasted at 70% potential in entering a recession in 2023, further diluting investor appetite for such REITS. However, I find Prime US REIT to be sound, not highly geared (38.7%) and their portfolio have a decent occupancy rate. At current price, this will equate to a 15% dividend yield. Buying in to ride the once in a lifetime opportunity. Plus, they have just launched the Distribution Reinvestment Plan. Time to grab more free shares.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch Mapletree Industrial Trust shares in December.

Long term investment as the manager has the history of growing distribution and Net Asset Value. If you have holding power, the share price will rise with time.

That is all for now. See you all in Q1 2023 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Beware! Lots of scammers on Carousell

Experience Sharing:

Recently, I have listed an item on Carousell to sell. Thinking it is relatively safe plus I have a good experience using the app 2 years ago, I trust the buyers are genuine and trustworthy. I was wrong. It seems that the platform are now quite full of scammers. Here is how they operate:

Scammer 1: Contacted you through the app chat they are interested in the product. Tell you that they are unable to meet up and will like to arrange their own courier. They will be paying using the Carousell app payment system. Then they share with you a screenshot that to complete the payment, they will need your (seller) email. You will receive an email that payment has been made (Alert 1: this email is not sent from the usual carousell.com domain). This email will ask you to click a link which will direct you to an address not from Carousell, asking you for your credit card information to receive payment (Alert 2: Why do they need your CC information? There is already your own wallet in the Carousell app they can transfer the money to).

Scammer 2: Same mode of operation as scammer 1, asking for your email with a Carousell screenshot that says will need the seller email to complete the payment. This time, this account is only just registered 1 day old. (Alert 1)

Scammer 3: Interested in the product and asking to arrange their own courier. This account is just registered a few hours old (Alert 1) and from Lobang (I guess somewhere in India?) (Alert 2)

Scammer 4: Asking me to Telegram him instead of chatting through the Carousell app (Alert 1).

These all happened within 1 day. Naturally, I did not disclose any private information and reported these accounts to Carousell. All of these accounts are subsequently suspended with 2-18 hours.

Anyway, for genuine buyers, they will not need your emails to complete the purchase. Everything will be settled inside the Carousell app and you will receive genuine emails from the Carousell.com domain.

Looks like need to be more vigilant when listing items on Carousell now and not get scammed.

17th Year Blog Anniversary

All right, this space has been alive for the past 17 years and is still kicking. Times changed looking at the past history. From student life, to work, to married life and to parenthood. Things we blog about also changed with times. From everyday life, to touring around the world, to kids and to investment with aim of sustainable income. Wishing everyone good health and smooth sailing ahead to navigate this challenging times. Not to forget, giving thanks to Him whom have bless us with everything we need and good health. May I pray that may He continue to keep my family safe and healthy, and guide us in everything we do.

Some Statistic:

Page Count: 77648 +4370

Year on Year increase: +136 +3.21%

Side note: Manchester United Glazer has finally open to the idea to sell the club. Hopefully can close within the next months. I doubt anyone will bid 6 billion pounds to match what they are looking for. 3 - 4 billion pounds (3.6 - 4.8 billion USD) is a more feasible target in my opinion. We shall see.

Next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Investment Plan

2022 has become a year of upheaval. First the euphoria of post COVID-19 when countries started re-opening and economy starts picking up. Then came the Russia-Ukraine war where it drove up the prices of almost everything, sending inflation rates sky rocketing and countries on the heels of raising interest rates to tame inflation. Now, investors are in jitters that interest rates are increasing at too fast a pace that will send economies into recession and in the process sending equities on a downhill slippery slope!

Again, it is unlikely I will reach my 2022 goal set back in 2019. My portfolio dividend yield this year will probably be in the 3.2% to 3.5% range, way off the ambitious target of 4.8%. Re-balancing a portfolio with some dead weight stocks is not easy after all, while waiting for Noble Group, KrisEnergy and Eagle H Trust to officially delist from SGX. At least I managed to increase my dividend yield from 2.44% from 3 years ago.

Now, back to my main objective of investment - earning passive income. Again, I will be using the insurance projected returns as a guide, which typically ranges from 3.25% to 4.75% currently. For the next 3 year, I will set a target to get a better yield than the insurance projected returns (Example: 4.8%). I think this will be a very challenging target as I have never achieve it before. Well, here you are, the next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Plan:

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts
2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.80% in 2023, 4.30% in 2024, 4.80% in 2025.

I will likely to continue load up on high dividend yield REITS (Looking at US Reits listed on SGX) and Singtel (if price is below $3.00) till I reached at least 10k shares each counter, so that these counters can participate in the Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) Program. Other potential target also include DBS if it fall below $35.00, MIT and FCT.

Fun @ Singapore Zoo

Time flies! The last time *OEE* is at the zoo, it was 19 months ago, where he has to be carried and had no interest in seeing the animals. This time, he gets to walk around (most of the time insisting not to hold daddy and mummy hands) and spent time observing animals in the enclosure. He can now sit through the showtimes looking at the shows instead of dozing off comfortably in daddy's arms. *OEE* also has a particular interest with the orange trams, and would stop and point at every tram that comes along the way! Thank God for the great weather where the sun is kept hidden behind clouds during the time we are in the zoo. And yes, Kids under 3 is still Free Admission.

Nothing much has changed in the zoo. The new developments are the expansion of Kidsworld where the new facility is currently under construction. Most of their toilets are newly renovated and the route to the zoo from the multi-storey carpark has changed, with the Bird Paradise opening next year. We happened to see wild monkeys in the zoo this time, and visitors are advised to stay away from them, least the monkeys start getting aggressive with the uninvited attention. A great, fun day at the Singapore Zoo with *OEE*!

Like a boss inspecting a peacock running across

Looking at the majestic lion with interest