Sunday, May 04, 2025

GE 2025: Aftermath

With the announcement of the final result at Tampines GRC, it marked the end of GE 2025. Singaporean have casted their choice of government for the next 5 years. In the next parliament, 87 electoral seats will be filled by the PAP and 10 by the WP. Looking at the nationwide vote share, the PAP won 65.57 per cent, up from its previous result of 61.24 per cent in GE2020. One surprise was the underperformance of PSP, which lost by quite a significant margin at West Coast-Jurong West GRC (2020: 48.32% Vs 2025: 39.99%). I pray may the incoming PAP continue to lead the country well in this chaotic world, minimize the impact of economic recession to its citizen and serve Singaporean with a heart!

Saturday, April 26, 2025

GE2025: My Opinion on Red Dot United Manifesto (Nee Soon GRC: PAP Vs RDU)

With the election campaigning in full swing, all parties have now released their manifesto detailing what they will fight for in the next 5 years should they be elected as a member of parliament. Nee Soon GRC will see the contest between incumbent PAP and RDU. As a resident staying within Nee Soon and having read through RDU's manifesto, I will attempt to pen down my thoughts.

RDU will campaign under 5 commitments centered on H.E.A.R.T for Singapore:

  1. Housing
  2. Equitable Healthcare
  3. Assured Prosperity
  4. Resilient Economy
  5. Transparency
Point 1: Housing

RDU has identified the below problems faced by Singaporeans:
  1. Lack of Long-Term Security - homeowners are paying top dollar for leasehold flats that will depreciate to zero-dollar value at the end of their 99-year lease.
  2. Rising Housing Costs - Escalating housing costs make upgrade or downsize more difficult, especially for first-time homeowners.
  3. Widening affordability gap - Foreign investment in high-end property skews the market, pushing up prices for locals and widening the affordability gap.
  4. Lack of housing options forces lower-income Singaporeans into rental cycles - Bottom 20% of income earners struggle with homeownership as they have limited pathways.
RDU proposed solutions:
  1. Champion SERS for all - Every HDB estate should be eligible for Selective En Bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS), ensuring older flats retain value and are renewed instead of being left to decay.
  2. Ensure sustainable price appreciation - Do so by managing HDB price growth at 3-5% annually through better calibrated land valuation, housing supply adjustments, and market intervention tools to keep public housing within reach
  3. Expand public rental housing and introduce a Rent-to-Own scheme - Cater to either the bottom 20% of income earners struggling with homeownership or young, single Singaporeans. By increasing fit-for-purpose rental flats, mainly in brownfield sites, we ensure that these citizens have real housing security while minimizing unnecessary land clearance. This proposal also helps to moderate runaway HDB prices by balancing the supply of rental and ownership-based flats.
  4. Prioritize Singaporean buyers over property speculators - Restricting new citizens and permanent residents from purchasing resale flats with less than 79 years of lease remaining. new citizens who have held Singapore citizenship for 10 years, or who have been PRs and citizens for a combined total of 10 years, should be regarded on par with natural-born citizens for housing eligibility. New citizens who have fulfilled their National Service obligations should also be considered on par.
Personally, I think the problems identified by RDU is flawed. Realistically speaking, how can you expect a property to still retain value at the end of their land lease? This is illogical. For debate sake, let's just assume some value can still be recovered at the end of the land lease. This will just artificially inflate the purchase price as people will be willing to pay a premium as they will expect these extra cost they paid now can be recovered back in future. End result? We get an even more expensive flat.

Moving on to their proposal to include every HDB for SERS. Talking is easy. What is the cost for this program? Where is the budget coming from? I don't find it anywhere.

Is rising housing cost really an issue for first time homeowners? Yes, if they are tight on budget and still insist to get a HDB at matured estate. There are other cheaper options available, such as non-matured estate and older resale flats. My point is, spend within your means and not overstretch yourself. I am still paying for my HDB (single income) with CPF only and no cash outlay. 

Widening affordability gap. RDU mentioned foreign investment in high-end property skews the market, pushing up prices for locals and widening the affordability gap. Come on. High end property, logically, is NOT affordable by most of the people. Is this even an issue in the first place?

I particularly do not agree with their proposal to split Singaporean into new citizen < 10 years and natural born citizen. By applying to be Singaporean, they are required to go through a tough process, which currently take years. Why do RDU still wants to subject new citizens to additional restriction? Is RDU against inclusiveness? In any case, how many new citizen (those really considering buying a HDB flat) does this impact? 

Point 2: Equitable Healthcare

RDU has identified the below problems faced by Singaporeans:
  1. Out-of-pocket expenses - Many Singaporeans struggle with out-of-pocket expenses for essential healthcare services, including mental health treatment. This burden discourages early care, worsening health outcomes and disproportionately affecting lower- and middle-income families.
  2. Savings over social protection - The current system prioritizes savings over social protection, forcing individuals to shoulder disproportionate costs.
  3. Skipping appointments and medications due to costs - Rising healthcare costs are forcing Singaporeans to skip specialist appointments, while many older patients struggle to afford essential medications, often skipping doses due to cost.
RDU proposed solutions:
  1. Rebalance the 3M framework - To prioritize universal healthcare coverage first, ensuring Medifund serves as a primary safety net accessible to all Singaporeans. The fund should be structured to provide tiered support, with the most substantial subsidies aimed at the lowest 40% of income groups. However, all citizens should have access to Medifund support, ensuring that healthcare remains affordable and inclusive across income levels. This approach not only eases the financial burden on individuals but also fosters collective responsibility, ensuring that no Singaporean delays treatment due to cost.
  2. Expand MediShield Life - To cover more outpatient treatments, ensuring comprehensive access to primary care, preventive screenings, and chronic disease management. This will include coverage for chronic illnesses and mental health, reducing financial barriers to care. By addressing these needs, it will reduce reliance on expensive emergency treatments and hospitalizations, making healthcare more accessible and cost-effective for all Singaporeans.
  3. Redesign MediSave - To function as a supplementary fund rather than the primary means of financing medical costs.
  4. Ensure healthcare affordability - Do so by capping out-of-pocket expenses and introducing fairer subsidies.
Rising healthcare cost is another issue very close to peoples' heart. This topic has been on every party's manifesto, giving their proposal to tackle this sack of hot potatoes. RDU have identified the healthcare issues as "struggling with out-of-pocket expenses" and "Skipping appointments and medications due to costs", I am not so sure if this is truly a social issue that is struggled by "many" Singaporean as written, or they are just overblowing the topic. I don't deny there are people that falls into this category, but how many is "many"? 

To tackle this "problem", RDU propose setting up a Medifund to provide universal healthcare coverage with tiered support, with the most substantial subsidies aimed at the lowest 40% of income groups. Assuming that this Medifund will provide better than the current 50% subsidy system, so as to make healthcare more affordable, where will this extra subsidy funding come from? How much more is this expected to cost the government? To put into context, I pick 3 developed countries with universal healthcare system that is similar to Singapore profile - Australia, Canada and Denmark. The first bracket of their income tax is 19% (Australia income band 18k-45k), 15% (Canada income band first 55k), 12% (Denmark income band 50k-588k), which are substantially higher than Singapore 4.2% (first income band 30k-80k). Do we want to pay more income taxes (Or other form of taxes) to sustain this universal healthcare coverage? I certainly do not.

It is certainly nice and rosy to talk about increasing scope of MediShield Life coverage, capping out of pocket expenses. We do want all these don't we? Insurance company will then tell you: "Yes, we can do it, but we cannot do it FOC. Cost will have to go up" Are we ready to pay more? By capping out of pocket expenses, which simply means providing more subsidy for essential healthcare services, where does this extra funding to come from? This remain unanswered.

Point 3: Assured Prosperity

RDU has identified the below problems faced by Singaporeans:
  1. Massive global workforce disruptions - Unprecedented oversupply of workers worldwide will lead to intense competition for jobs, which will drive wages down and push many workers into unstable, low-paying, or informal work.
  2. Mental health & social stability under threat - Economic uncertainty, financial stress and job insecurity take a huge toll on mental well-being and undermine social cohesion.
  3. Growing inequality & financial strain - Singaporeans who are in lower income brackets already struggle with financial insecurity. Without proactive measures, the income gap will widen as global economic pressures mount.
  4. Existing safety nets are insufficient - Temporary schemes like vouchers or rebates provide momentary relief but fail to offer the consistent support needed in the face of this historic global challenge.
RDU proposed solutions:
  1. Champion the Citizens Dividend - An unconditional cash transfer that serves as a financial safety net for all Singaporeans.
  2. Address the challenges of the global job crisis - The Citizens Dividend provides financial stability in a world where job scarcity and underemployment become the norm. It empowers individuals to seek better opportunities, reskill, and innovate without the constant stress of financial survival.
  3. Prevent societal fractures - This safety net will reduce poverty, strengthen resilience, and protect the dignity of Singaporeans, ensuring no one is left behind in this unprecedented economic transition.
  4. Build a fairer, more resilient economy - By distributing wealth more equitably, the Citizens Dividend creates a foundation for shared prosperity, reducing inequality and fostering a more inclusive society.
  5. Opportunity for every Singaporean - The Citizens Dividend positions Singapore as a resilient nation that protects its people while building a future where every Singaporean can thrive in an uncertain world.
After talking so much, it basically can be summarized as "Ah Gong gives you $ which is meaningful enough to act as a safety net". How much is meaningful enough to act as a safety net? Certainly not a few hundred dollars. For debate sake, lets just quote WP research taking living wage as a reference - $1,600 per month. How much will this cost the government? Where will the fund come from? How can you ensure this system is not abused? We certainly do not want people to stop working and just leech off this safety net. 

From the podcast just ended, RDU has further shared that the funds will come from cutting government wastage, mayors salary and nation surpluses. I don't think the figures add up to the budget needed if everyone is to be given $1600/mth, plus I do not agree with using the nation surpluses and not putting them into reserve. Call me traditional but I do believe in the merits of saving up for rainy days. Remember COVID-19, Singapore drawn down $52 billion from past reserve to tide over the event, when other countries are borrowing debt, which they will need to repay with interest, further reducing future revenue which can be better spent elsewhere.

Point 4: Resilient Economy

RDU has identified the below problems faced by Singaporeans:
  1. Rising cost of living - While inflation has shown signs of easing, the GST increase to 9% in 2024 continues to exert financial pressure on lower- and middle income families. The GST Voucher scheme provides some relief but does not fully offset the increased burden, especially for the poorest households, as it is time-limited and fails to account for the broader rise in living costs.
  2. Minimal real growth wage - Real wage growth was minimal in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, wage increases have barely kept up with inflation, hovering around 0.4%, while billionaires continue to benefit from tax-friendly policies that help them amass even greater wealth.
  3. Working class left behind - The working class is left behind. Economic insecurity is rising, and many Singaporeans struggle to afford their basic needs despite working long hours.
RDU proposed solutions:
  1. Shift from GDP-focused policies - Shift from GDP-focused policies to a Wellbeing Economy that prioritises fair wages, job security with a Citizens First Hiring Policy, and sustainable growth for all, not just the elite.
  2. Support local businesses - Support local businesses, especially micro and small enterprises, by ensuring fairer procurement policies, tackling late payments, moderating rents, and making grants more accessible, so that local entrepreneurs—who create jobs and drive grassroots innovation—can thrive in an economy that has increasingly prioritised large corporations and foreign investments.
  3. Safeguard sustainability and our planet - Protect Singapore’s green spaces and biodiversity by prioritizing brownfield redevelopment and ensuring greater transparency in land-use decisions. Boost recycling rates and embrace circular economy principles to minimize waste and resource consumption. The current carbon tax system places an undue burden on consumers while failing to effectively curb emissions. Replace this system with enforceable emission limits on high-impact corporations to drive accountability where it matters most.
Rising cost of living is another issue faced by every country in the world, which no one has a solution for. It is easy to just lay the blame on GST increase, but on the hindsight, Singapore need the extra funds it provide for the healthcare facilities to support our aging population. It is easy to say prioritises fair wages, Citizens First Hiring. But are Singaporean willing to work in these role? Take for example F&B attendance, security guards, they can easily earn 3-4k per month, but need long working hours. Are Singaporean willing to work in these role? 

I dont quite link how supporting local business can lead to a resilient economy. On the contrary, large MNCs are the one driving job numbers, and with them, help carry the local supporting business. We should continue attract MNCs to come invest and setup factories in Singapore instead!

Again, I dont get how sustainability is link with resilient economy. There is nothing new in their proposal which the government is not doing already. And I do not agree with using regulation as a stick to further raise the bar beyond the industrial standard. Over regulation will just drive companies away. Carbon tax system, on the other hand, is a softer approach. Companies can decide the cost to pass on to remain competitive. 

Anyway, it is not that I am anti opposition. So long as they can provide sound, credible proposal that is contributing in making a better Singapore, I am all in support! What I cannot stand is giving populist proposal that does no good to the long term of Singapore. Take for example The Workers’ Party Manifesto 2025, I do find most of their proposal good and credible that can contribute in making a better Singapore.

I think I have said enough. Last word for RDU. I don't know your members and I have not seen them before. At the very least, can you share your next 5 years plan for Nee Soon? It is hard for me to choose you when I don't even know what improvement you will drive for the estate.

Wednesday, April 02, 2025

1Q 2025 Investment Strategy Update

This quarter marks the start of Trump's rule for the next 4 years and he does it with a bang! With the all too familiar bullying mentality, it is his way or the highway. Within the first 2 months, in order to cut down government expenses, he close almost all foreign aids, fire contingent government workers and started tariff wars with countries which have a huge trade surplus with USA. Economist is currently talking about slow down in USA GDP due to the increase in cost and pricing in a possibility of recession 6 months down the road. Private companies are not spared either, with increasing news of retrenchment to right size the workforce to combat recession threat. Personally, I don't foresee a good year ahead, even if Trump manage to ramp his way through with tax cuts (and possibly put USA into more debt with fiscal deficit).

DJI ended at 42033, an decrease of 511 points (-1.20%) compared to 4Q 2024. For Singapore, STI ended at 3972, an increase of 185 points (+4.88%) compared to last quarter. Banks in Singapore (52.8% STI weightage) continued to do well with record profits while technology shares took a hit due to slowdown in demand. Overall, market continue to respond to Trump's policy direction. 

In this current quarter, with limited budget as company is not doing well, I can only do some small bot on purchase.

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Credit Bureau Asia shares in March. 

This company continue to scale up in their new markets in Cambodia, and Myanmar, while Singapore and Malaysia will be buoyed by the new digital banks increased checks on customer profile as they start their loan business. Income will be stable as it is much a recurring business. I believe there is still room to grow for this company.

That is all for now. See you all in Q2 2025 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Legoland 2025

07 Mar - It is our annual trip to Legoland with our *OEE*! Having grown taller these past 1 year, now he has reached a new milestone to be able to ride roller coaster within the park! Much has changed where we stayed for 2 nights compared to 1 year ago. A new Greentree Hotel is currently being built to be ready in 2026. A lot of new and cheap eateries has open up surrounding the hotel. Imagine having a breakfast for just RM35 for 2 adults and 1 kid! The food is nice though!

Kokomo restaurant (Rating 4.2 - 257 reviews) where we have our usual lunch

Medo Restaurant (Rating 4.3 - 65 reviews) where we have our breakfast


As usual, we picked a weekday to visit Legoland to avoid the crowds. All the rides practically have no queue and we cleared them pretty fast. Its the first time riding the roller coaster for *OEE* and the experience did not go down well for him. He wanted to ride one time only as he is scared! Haha >.< In the end, most of our time are spent chasing the 4D shows and the live shows on stage.





*OEE* did managed to get his hand on the Junior Driving School to drive a car on his own and the Boating School to steer a boat through the winding course. Thank God it did not rain when we were at Legoland to enjoy the full day!

Wednesday, January 01, 2025

4Q 2024 Investment Strategy Update

It is a crazy world. Just when I think the USA folks are clear headed enough to see through Trump's flowery commitment (After going through 4 years of his rule), they went back and elect him as the next term president. 2025 could just be a Year of Chaos, where tariffs and Trump's way or the highway politics will take center stage. Overall, I believe Trump's politics will benefit the US stock market, with tax cuts and deregulation. Fed's interest rate should still be on the downward trend, but at a slower rate. After all, Trump always has a tendency to rate his performances based on the strength of the US stock market. With the downward trend in interest rate, I will be staying clear of bank stocks. Instead, I may take a look at REITs that have exposure to USA Offices. Things have started bottoming out, with companies demanding employees to come back to offices to work, and that means they need more space!

DJI ended at 42544, an increase of 214 points (+0.50%) compared to 3Q 2024. For Singapore, STI ended at 3787, an increase of 202 points (+5.63%) compared to last quarter. Banks in Singapore have taken central stage in the last 6 months with their stellar results, but with the looming downward interest rate trend, I will only do opportunistic buy-in if they drop too much a price.

With 2024 drawing to a close, it is time for the annual review against my 3 year plan (Next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Investment Plan) set back in Nov 2022. Below are my result:

Original 2023-2025 plan: 

  1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts 
  2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.80% in 2023, 4.30% in 2024, 4.80% in 2025.

End 2024 result: 

  1. 49.22% Equity, 50.78% Reits/Trusts 
  2. 80.58% SG Equity, 19.42% USA Equity 

Portfolio Yield at 3.46% in 2024 (-0.12% from 2023, and miss 2024 4.30% target)

Verdict: Miss Target

Note: In 2024, Prime US Reit only gave out dividend at a much reduced rate. Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit elected to suspend dividend until 2H2025.

Below is my end 2024 portfolio snapshot:

Total dividend received in 2024: $6,595.05 (~$549.58/month)

For this quarter, I continued accumulating Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit and Mapletree Industrial Trust to take advantage of Fed starting cycle in reducing interest rate. Overall, this move should be a positive for Reits as a reduction in interest rate = reduction in interest expenses = more distribution available for investors.

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Mapletree Industrial Trust shares in December

Overall positive for the Reit as they started investing into Japan Data Center market, partly due to low interest rate for Yen and Yen currency weakness. At current 5.9% dividend yield. this is a good deal.

Transaction 2Bought 1 batch Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit shares in December

Current weakness was due to its suspension of dividend until 2H2025. I personally don't see this Reit in any potential danger as the manager has been keeping a close eye on its gearing level. Continue to buy in while waiting for dividend to resume.

That is all for now. See you all in Q1 2025 update and thank you for reading thus far.