4Q 2023 Investment Strategy Update

Finally, we can start breathing a sign of relief. US Fed finally has indicated they are not looking at increasing the interest rate further and instead projects 3 rate cuts in 2024 as the economy cools down and start losing steam. Who will be the winners in a decreasing interest rate environment? For Singapore, it will be non other than the Reits (Especially Reits with US market exposure). Less $ spent on interest payment = more distribution to unitholders and higher property value. The losers in a decreasing interest rate environment? It will be the banks of course as their Net Interest Margin shrinks = lesser profits. So for 2024, it will be bearish on banks equity and bullish for the Business Trust and Reits. Market has already start pricing in this information as it can be seen in the rally in Reits with USA exposure at the start of December. For me, I can finally start reaping the rewards for accumulating Prime US Reit and Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit for the past1 year.

DJI ended at 37689, an increase of 4182 points (+12.48%) compared to 3Q 2023. For Singapore, STI ended at 3240, an increase of 23 points (+0.71%) compared to last quarter. While investors has poured into the USA market with the Fed signaling they are done with the interest rate increase in the last 2 months; however, there is not much movement in the Singapore market partly due to investors holding their ground against buying into the banks counter (consisting of 46.65% STI weightage) as banks are typically bearish due to their shrinking NIM in a decreasing interest rate environment.

Manchester United has finally announced on Christmas Eve 2023 that Sir Jim Ratcliffe had acquired a 25% stake in Manchester United and would be taking control of the club's football operations. The acquisition will consist of 25% from the Glazer family and 25% from public unitholders in the form of tender offer at $33/share. Once he pass the director test, which is said to take anywhere up to four weeks to complete, although usually takes closer to a fortnight; he can then officially start the tender offer. I cannot wait to cash in when that time comes.

With 2023 drawing to a close, it is time for the annual review against my 3 year plan (Next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Investment Plan) set back in Nov 2022. Below are my result:

Original 2023-2025 plan: 

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts 
2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.80% in 2023, 4.30% in 2024, 4.80% in 2025.

End 2023 result: 

1. 50.16% Equity, 49.84% Reits/Trusts 
2. 80.74% SG Equity, 19.26% USA Equity 
3. Portfolio Yield at 3.58% in 2023 (+0.00% from 2022, but miss 2023 3.80% target)

Verdict: Miss Target

Below is my end 2023 portfolio snapshot:

Total dividend received in 2023: $6,478.37 (~$539.86/month)

For this quarter, not much activity from me, except accumulating Prime US Reit, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit and Mapletree Industrial Trust as I feel the SG market has over reacted to the Manulife US Reit and interest rate increase saga.

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Prime US Reit shares in October. 

40+% yield is just too tempting to be missed. Load up more as I don't think it will fold like the Manulife US Reit. Manager is quite prudent in controlling debt, carefully avoiding borrowing more to maintain dividend.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit shares in December.

Maiden investment in this counter at 20+% yield. I find this counter the strongest out of the 3 Singapore US Reits. Property price of the portfolio has not decrease much and management has worked hard to maintain the building high occupancy rate.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Mapletree Industrial Trust shares in December.

Investing more due to the exposure to USA data center portfolio, which will benefit the trust in a decreasing interest rate environment and long customer tenancy time. 

.

That is all for now. See you all in Q1 2024 update and thank you for reading thus far.

India Work Trip - Exploring Delhi & Taj Mahal Part 2

21 Dec - Extended 1 day from my business trip to visit the Taj Mahal, which is a 3 hours drive away from Delhi. Initially wanted to catch the sunrise at the Taj Mahal, but with recommendations from the guide that driving at night is dangerous given the low visibility condition in winter, we delayed the set off time by 4 hours. Eventually, we reached the Taj around 10am in the morning.

The Taj Mahal is an ivory-white marble mausoleum on the right bank of the river Yamuna in Agra, Uttar Pradesh, India. It was commissioned in 1631 by the fifth Mughal emperor, Shah Jahan (r. 1628–1658) to house the tomb of his beloved wife, Mumtaz Mahal, who died during the birth of her 14th child; it also houses the tomb of Shah Jahan himself. The tomb is the centrepiece of a 17-hectare (42-acre) complex, which includes a mosque and a guest house, and is set in formal gardens bounded on three sides by a crenellated wall. Truly a wonder in its own right. 

Taj Mahal Entrance

Mosque

India Work Trip - Exploring Delhi & Taj Mahal Part 1

20 Dec - Found some time to explore Delhi during the last day of my work trip and went on a tour with YB to visit the touristy places that the city has to offer. Delhi, which has a rich cultural history most known by the rule of the Mughal Empire (1526 - 1858), has left many significant tombs of its emperors till this day. Half of the trip was spent on visitation to the tomb of the emperor. 

First stop: The Qutb Minar, is a minaret and "victory tower" that forms part of the Qutb complex, which lies at the site of Delhi’s oldest fortified city, Lal Kot, founded by the Tomar Rajputs. It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site in the Mehrauli area of South Delhi, India and one of the most visited tourist spots in the city, mostly built between 1199 and 1220.

Second Stop: The Lotus Temple is a Baháʼí House of Worship that was dedicated in December 1986. Notable for its lotus-like shape, it has become a prominent attraction in the city. Like all Bahá’í Houses of Worship, the Lotus Temple is open to all, regardless of religion or any other qualification. As the queue to the insides of the building is too long, we just took photos of the building and left (Save time as daylight is short during winter).

Third stop: Isa Khan Tomb. The mausoleum houses the tomb of Isa Khan Niazi, who was a noble at the courts of Sher Shah Suri and Islam Shah Suri. It is situated south of the Bu Halima's garden in the Humayun's Tomb complex. This building is part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Same Third stop: Humayun's Tomb. This is the tomb of the Mughal second emperor, Mirza Nasir al-Din Muhammad commonly known as Humayun. The tomb was commissioned by Humayun's first wife and chief consort, Empress Bega Begum under her patronage in 1558, and designed by Mirak Mirza Ghiyas and his son, Sayyid Muhammad, Persian architects chosen by her. It was the first garden-tomb on the Indian subcontinent and was also the first structure to use red sandstone at such a scale. The tomb was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1993.

Our trip ended with a drive pass of the famous India Gate. It is a memorial to 84,000 soldiers of the Indian Army who died between 1914 and 1921 in the First World War, in France, Flanders, Mesopotamia, Persia, East Africa, Gallipoli and elsewhere in the Near and the Far East, and the Third Anglo-Afghan War. 13,300 servicemen's names, including some soldiers and officers from the United Kingdom, are inscribed on the gate. Designed by Sir Edwin Lutyens, the gate evokes the architectural style of the ancient Roman triumphal arches such as the Arch of Constantine in Rome, and later memorial arches; it is often compared to the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, and the Gateway of India in Mumbai.

18th Year Blog Anniversary

18 years of keeping this blog alive, time really flies. Been busy the whole year with *OEE* coming to 4 years of age + company throwing more ad hoc projects (Regional Sustainability, new factory construction) coming my way. Before I know it, the year is already over. Will be taking a break from part time teaching next year to focus on the upcoming projects. Finally, give thanks to God whom have bless us with everything we need and pray that may He continue to guide us in guiding *OEE* to know Him and to lead a Christian life that He has plan for us.

Some Statistic: 

Page Count: 82034 +4386 

Year on Year increase: +16 +0.36% 

Side note: Manchester United Glazer stake sale is finally coming to an end after 1 year. Ratcliffe has emerged the winner of the saga with an initial 25% stake purchase, with the understanding that this is "a foot in the door" with the full sale to proceed progressively in the future. Sale price is reported around $33 a share, placing Man Utd at a valuation of 6.5 billion USD, reportedly to sign off early next week. Finally, it is time to offload all my Man Utd shares.

Bon Voyage Le Le

Thought of bringing *OEE* to River Wonders to have a last look at Le Le before he officially returns back to China for good. So here we are on 24-Oct and Thank God for making the trip happens! Little did we know that *OEE* will be down with mumps, fever and a swelling cheek the very next day! Little has changed in River Wonders....performances are still the same....and we get to see quite a lot of pandas actions! Well, the viewing quarters of the pandas do need a fresh coat of paint as we see lots of areas where the paints are peeling off the walls. Here are the pictures to document the trip.

*OEE* looking at fishes

Once Upon a River Show

Once Upon a River Show

Le Le

Jia Jia

Kai Kai - zzzzz

Le Le again!

Food wise, do not get the Chicken Cutlet Panda Bao Special at the Mama Panda Kitchen. The chicken cutlet is paper thin and hard, not worth the price to pay. You will be better off at ordering the chicken karaage instead! Other than this, all else is fine.

3Q 2023 Investment Strategy Update

A quarter of sideway movement, while investors at large waiting for the next economy cycle signal. This basically sums up the feeling for the last 3 months. Generally, economy are slowing down, inflation are slowing down and federal rate hikes are taking a pause, without pushing the market into a recession (Or they aim for a soft landing). Companies are cutting expenses and investment to preserve profit, hiring are slowing down in most of the markets, with all signs preparing for the next economy downturn. War between Ukraine and Russia are not looking to end anytime soon. China property market is a timebomb waiting to unleash the next major jolt (bomb) to the world, with major Chinese developers going into defaults. A silver lining though is that China government are trying to control the fallout, with aggressive slashing of local rates to pump cash into the local market. Hopefully, this cycle of slowing down can pass soon to put the world economy into a path of sustainable growth.

DJI ended at 33507, an decrease of 900 points (-2.61%) compared to 2Q 2023. For Singapore, STI ended at 3217, an increase of 12 points (+0.37%) compared to last quarter. Not much movement in the recent months as investors waits for a clearer direction.

Almost 1 year on (since 22 Nov 2022) when the Glazer announced exploring strategic directions for Manchester United, 2 bids have been submitted to the Raine Group, rumored around 5 billion pounds range. I am still waiting for Glazer's confirmation to SELL Man Utd. Understood they are looking at >6 billion pounds valuation, but realistically speaking, they are not a good owner to grow the football team (Currently 3W 4L, sitting at 10th place, definitely not a good start). The longer they drag, the lower the valuation, with poor performance on pitch. Hopefully, they can make up their mind soon to exit the business.

For this quarter, I am continuing to focus on accumulating US Reits (Except Manulife US Reit), as I believed they are too oversold in the Singapore market and their current yield is too good to be missed. Once the interest rates start to come down, US Reits should start appreciating in value.

Transaction 1: Participate in IREIT Global Rights issue in July.

Participated in the preference rights issue to “fund the acquisition of a portfolio of 17 retail properties located across France which are fully let to B&M France SAS.” Managed to get some excess rights to round up to the 100s for future trading purposes.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Prime US Reit shares in July. 

30+% yield is just too tempting to be missed. Load up more as I don't think it will fold like the Manulife US Reit. Manager is quite prudent in controlling debt, carefully avoiding borrowing more to maintain dividend. Temasek being a 10% shareholder also adds to its credibility.

That is all for now. See you all in Q4 2023 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Renewal with Senoko Energy (With $60 rebate & Referral Code)

Time flies. 2 years have almost past since I signed up with Senoko Energy after the collapse of Ohm Energy. No trouble so far with this retail company. I decided to stick by it, mainly to take advantage of their current promotion of $60 bill rebate for any 2 years plan (Promo Code: LUV60) and a referral bill rebate at $20. What I like about this company is that even for contract renewal, you can also apply their bill rebate promotion.

Though they have long discontinued their discount off tariff plans, the fixed rate plan they have now essentially provides a 5% discount off SP Tariff rate. Below is the plan they are currently offering for renewal:

Refer a friend to sign up for an electricity plan with Senoko Energy and both of you will earn a $20 bill rebate each to offset your electricity bill. The more successful referrals, the more you earn! Feel free to use my referral code for an additional $20 rebate!

Use your referral code! 

713E8QCU

Penang Day 1 to 6 - The Top Penang & Bro Wedding

22 Jun - First time taking *OEE* overseas on a plane together as a family. Main item on the trip is to attend my brother's wedding. Now that *OEE* is 3.5 years old, he is learning to assert his own independence. We are not sure how challenging it will be, but on a bright side, the flight time is just 85mins. We are praying hard everything will be manageable and smooth sailing for the flight...

By God's Grace, no big issue came up. We managed to get a taxi (private car) from the airport counter and we soon arrived at our hotel - Courtyard Marriott Penang. The hotel has a good view overlooking part of the Georgetown area, and the swimming pool has a great scenic view as well.

First meal in Penang - Char Kuey Teow (using duck egg) [Nice!]

After dinner, it was time to put *OEE* to bed, and for us to conserve energy for a day out tomorrow at The Top Penang, where 3 attractions awaits.

23 Jun - Caught a Grab to The Top Penang and spend some time searching for the main entrance to the attractions. If anyone is coming via Grab, the location to choose on the app is "Komtar Walk" which will drop you right at the entrance steps.

LED Screen for Jurassic Research Center

First stop for us is the Jurassic Research Center. There are some outdoor exhibits. As the weather then is still good, we decided to visit this first. I would say the folks running this has made a good use of the rooftop of the building. Instead of wasting the space, they have convert it to some live moving dinosaurs.

Our next stop is the Top Boutique Museum. I would say the exhibits are nothing spectacular. But since our 3 in 1 pass has this attraction, we might as well not waste it.

Our last stop is the Rainbow Skywalk, where we hope to catch the sunset at Level 68 with a panoramic view of the whole Georgetown. For the skywalk portion (where it is a small section see-through glass floor jutting out of the building), there is a constant long line of people queuing for entry. We gave up queuing for that and instead, found ourselves a good spot and wait for the setting sun.

Wax figures before taking the lift up to Level 65

24 Jun - Whole day basically was spent shifting hotel to my bro wedding venue - Lone Pine Hotel, which will soon be rebranded as Lone Pine, Penang, a Marriott Tribute Portfolio Resort. Nice place with access to beach with water sport activities (external operators).

25 Jun - Morning was spent visiting the beach and let *OEE* play with sand for the first time and explore seawater. Afternoon was pretty much attending my bro wedding event. One interesting point was that *OEE* was busy dancing the whole night to the live band songs! Didn't know he is such a great dancer!

26 Jun - A chill and relaxing day to use the swimming pool for *OEE* to play with water and explore the much raved Penang food. Ordered from Grab Food their Michelin Signature - Duck Blood Curry Mee 鸭血咖喱面. We have no regrets! Their curry mee is really unlike what we have in Singapore, and it is really good. Their steam chicken as well! Coupled with the old school Kopi where they tied using raffia strings, the whole experience is just heavenly!

27 Jun - Check out and make our way back to Singapore. Plane got delayed 1 hour due to late take-off and *OEE* diaper leaked during landing. Opps... much apologies to the SIA cleaning crew. >.<

2Q 2023 Investment Strategy Update

Nothing significant changed compared to last quarter. Ukraine war is still going on, interest rate is still sky high, though there are signs that central banks are looking at taking a pause on the rate increase to see if inflation can be tapered to a sustainable rate, without dragging the economy into recession. I must say that things are not looking good. There are already signs that companies are holding back investment and new orders as things start to slow down, though only time will tell if this situation is only temporary, or it is the start of a recession cycle.

DJI ended at 34407, an increase of 1133 points (+3.40%) compared to 1Q 2023. For Singapore, STI ended at 3205, a decrease of 53 points (-1.62%) compared to last quarter. Markets are moving sideways in the recent months as investors waits for a clearer direction. 

For this quarter, not much action from me, except waiting for the official announcement if the Glazers are going to sell off Man Utd. I personally think at the end, they will leave Man Utd, but not before getting the highest bid for their shares. Other than this, I am focus on accumulating US Reits, as their current yield is still too good to be missed.

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Grab shares in May. 

GXS has started getting active with now accepting loans. Grab continued with adjusting their customer incentives system to make the business more profitable. Recently, Grab announced slashing 11% of their workforce to be aligned with the current business environment. I think Grab will be on target to turn profitable and has a great potential for share value increase.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Prime US Reit shares in June. 

At least to me, this does not look like a Reit in distress. Tenants are still paying rents, occupancy rate is reasonably good, gearing % is not too bad, but this does not show in the share value, probably due to the high interest rate environment. But with the current yield at 30% for a reit, this is too good to be miss.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Mapletree Industrial Trust shares in June.

Usual stocking up on this good counter, while waiting for interest rate to drop and the Kolam Ayer 2 cluster to start contribution to unlock more share price value.

That is all for now. See you all in Q3 2023 update and thank you for reading thus far.

NARUTO TV Animation 20th Anniversary Exhibition Singapore

Took leave today to visit the NARUTO exhibition at Marina Square Level 3. Overall, good experience to take pictures with the figurines and reminisce the anime scenes again, though I completed watching it some time ago. The ticket for the exhibition is priced at $22 with a 1 hour tour limit (the folks will start reminding you of the time when you have 15 mins remaining). The venue is not that big, though I appreciate that they can be more lax with the time, as my slot only have 2 groups. There is also a VR session that you can do at the end of the tour, but you will need to pay extra $3 (the $25 ticket option) when you buy the ticket. Merchandise shop at the end is on the pricy side (Imagine 1 T-shirt cost $60 with just a simple print).

Point to note: There is a lot lesser people if you choose to go during the weekday morning session.

For more information, you can take a look at this Mothership article. If not, enjoy the photos.