For 3Q 2017, USA continues its strong economy and job hiring performance, as evident in DJI climbing 1056 points to 22405, though the market seems to be at their saturation point towards the end in September as stocks are becoming increasingly expensive and traders start being cautious in entering the market before seeing solid results. Trump revealed his plans for personal and company tax cuts, though it seems unlikely in passing the senate without finding revenue to plug the gap for the cuts proposed without adding more debt for the country. Singapore STI was stagnant for the quarter, climbing to 3354 before profit taking took place and retreats back to 3219, losing 7 points overall for Q3 compared to Q2. In the world news, USA and North Korea continues their threats towards each other, increasing the chance of a nuclear war on the Korean peninsular. In my opinion, it seems to be the right time now to take profits and preserve cash in anticipation of a correction should any major event happens. For the oil market, there is a shifting view among market analyst in September that we will likely see a oil supply shortfall in 2018 given the lack of investment due to low oil price in the past 2 years.
For Singapore, Croesus Retail Trust obtained shareholder approval for Blackstone buyout at $1.17 and is set to delist on 24-Oct. For GLP, the management has accepted the scheme of arrangement for the buyout at $3.38, to be completed before April 2018. There is nothing much for me to do for Q3, just have to wait for the cash to come in for the buyout in Oct before re-investing the cash in other REIT counters. My Q3 transactions as below:
Transaction 1: Bought in 2 batch of Krisenergy on future oil price play and its likely partial divestment of an oil field project that will be coming online for production in
2019.
As it looks likely that the price of oil will be rising in the future (at least in 2018) (partially because of Saudi Arabia Aramco IPO, who will not want the oil price to be too low, affecting their ability to price the IPO at a good price), I bought in a small stake in Krisenergy given the low price it is in now, no debt obligation till at least 2021 and likely chance of them
farming out partially their near 95% stake in the Cambodia Block A oil field to decrease their investment burden in bringing the field online. Once reach target price, I will be selling out, not intending to hold long term.
Transaction 2: Bought in 1 batch of Manchester United plc in NYSE
Yes, finally, I managed to own some shares of Manchester United! This is not an impulsive buy though. Last year in 2016, the EPL has concluded a
record breaking deal for the local and overseas broadcasting rights until the end of the 2018-19 season. This means the clubs will be receiving a lot more money from this deal and is evident from the record transfer fees seen this season. Manchester United has been doing well this season under the new legendary manager José Mourinho and they just started their Champions League battle after an absence of 2 years. Coupled with their large fan base worldwide, the next 3 years just looks rosy. Of course, the profits of the club is tied to the performance on the pitch. If Manchester United is not doing well, time to abandon ship! Target price for more buy in: Under USD $18.00
That is all for the Q3 update. See ya all in Q4. Chaos
