Saturday, July 01, 2017

2Q 2017 Investment Strategy Update

Same as previous quarter, 2Q 2017 has been a quiet session for me. Global equity continues to climb as companies continue to beat estimation with their results. Industrial manufacturing index continues in their positive growth in USA, China and Europe, resulting in rumors that USA federal is going to hike interest rate again for the third time in 9 months. For the quarter, DJI grew 537 points to 21349. Singapore STI largely followed the global trend, growing 130 points to 3226. Despite all these positive news, there are signs nearing end June that USA and China industry has began to slow. At the back of my mind, I have a nagging feeling that a market correction might be arriving in the next few months. 

Back closer at home, last week of June brings 2 positive news. Croesus Retail Trust just announced an offer from Blackstone at $1.17 plus estimated $0.0406 dividend, projecting to close before Oct 2017 (Straits Times News). GLP, which announced commencing strategic review half a year ago, has finally set 30 Jun for submission of offer bids. According to sources, 2 groups has submitted their bid by the deadline (Straits Times News). Looking forward to close out these 2 holdings next quarter to partially fund the NetLink Trust IPO. For Q2, I have only managed 2 transactions, as I continue to believe that Noble Group will not go bankrupt.

Transaction 1 & 2: Bought in 2 small batch of Noble Group as I continue to believe the company will not go under.

This is indeed a high risk move as no one is sure how Noble will perform for their current quarter (Q2). Last quarter unexpected US$130 million loss due to wrong strategy in coal price execution has led the chairman to step down and few of the independent directors leaving the company. Banks only extend their credit line which is expiring in Jun 2017 by 120 days for Noble Group to look for a strategic investor. Noble continues to sell some of their smaller subsidiaries to downsize and raise cash. Lets see how it goes in Q3.

That is all for the Q2 update. See ya all in Q3. Chaos

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