Saturday, March 30, 2019

1Q 2019 Investment Strategy Update

1Q 2019 pretty much came and gone before I know it. Trump pretty went on his usual Twitter blaming people, saying things that were probably half true (Trade discussion with China are going well...), demanding things to go his way (I don't care, open up the closed GE Ohio plant already!), and even going soft on North Korea. I mean, when do USA ever have a president in the past that behaves like Trump? Well, stock market have mostly recovered from the mini bear last quarter as Fed have indeed bent to his will to give out indication that they are not going to raise the interest rate further this year, and just yesterday, Trump changes his mind and wants Fed to start dropping interest rates! Seriously, the Federal Reserve is supposed to be an independent organization free of political influence. Stop undermining them!

DJI ended at 25928, a rise of 2601 points (+11.15%) compared to 4Q. For Singapore, STI ended at 3212, an increase of 144 points (+4.69%) compared to 4Q. It has been widely reported that Trump views the USA economy and stocks performance as a report card for his president tendency. I believe he will do anything to achieve that. For the immediate 1 year (till 2020 where Trump's term will end), I believe the market will be leaning to positive due to Trump's positive interference. However, not everyone will be bending to Trump, as shown by the trade talk with China, which Trump keep saying is going well, but reality is IT is NOT concluding anytime soon, and could be dragging for months with the tariffs on both sides still in effect. 

For Q1 2019, I am just focused on opportunistic stocks that have an attractive price to enter and hopefully sell them off when I deem their full value is matched.

Transaction 1: Bought in a batch of Marriott in January and March.

After reports of data breach from a legacy Starwood system, Marriott price did tanked for quite a while as investor factored in the potential legal cost and penalty Marriott might faced in USA. But seeing their aggressive expansion plan for the next 3 years, I could not ignore the current attractive price and bought in the shares intending to hold for long term.

Transaction 2: Bought in a batch of Danaher in January.

Introducing to you the USA Six Sigma company called the Danaher Business System. I knew of Danaher from my 1st company work experience. Their mode of operation is to use their existing free cash flow to buy into companies that have synergies with their existing group of companies and literally conduct lean manufacturing exercise to weed out the extra fats that are dragging the company down. After acquiring the company, usually, they will keep the company brand if it is a well known product. Keep repeating this cycle many times, you will have a major conglomerate which investor will love! Well, their share price performances for the past 10 years definitely speaks volume.

Transaction 3: Bought in two batch of Manchester United in January.

Well, their price have dropped to a level which I think it is attractive, so I bought in two batches hoping to sell them off when I think their full value is met

Transaction 4: Bought in two batch of Amara in January.

I still have a little way to go with this counter. Going into 2019, their office and 100AM shopping mall Shanghai will start contributing to their financial result. Office take up rate has reached 90% after they signed a long lease with a single tenant. Transiting into landlord model which will have higher margin, I can't see why their share price won't go up in future, with even more likely chance to increase their annual dividend in end FY19.

Transaction 5: Bought in a batch of Apple in January and sold in March.

After reports of very weak consumer IPhone sale from China, Apple Inc share price dropped from US$232 to US$142. I personally think that the share is oversold, considering they still have their service App store segment that is going strong. I am only buying in at current attractive price and intend to sell them when I think their value is fully met.

Transaction 6: Bought in a batch of Mapletree Industrial in February.

Mapletree Industrial certainly surprise me with their purchase of the 18 Tai Seng mixed-use property from their sponsor parent company. Thinking that they might tap the public market for rights offer, I bought into the share hoping to scoop up additional rights share when it happened, but instead, they tap the private market for share offer. Well, they still have 2 more properties (7 Tai Seng & 18 Tai Seng) coming up in the pipeline, I am intending to hold for long term dividend growth.

That is all for now. See you all in Q2 2019 update and thank you for reading this long long post. =)

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