4Q 2019 Investment Strategy Update

What an end to 2019! Oct to Dec period are dominated by HK protest (that never seems to end), US Trump impeachment, Brexit (that seems to drag on forever) and warning of slowing economy in Asia and Europe. Trade tension between China and USA (world's two largest economy) that blows hot and cold all too often doesn't help sediment either as companies rein in expenditure for fear of their products being tariff and faced with loss of market share. Saving grace was China and USA are finally going to sign their Phase 1 trade deal soon (Most likely in Jan 2020) to formalize the low hanging fruits that are easy to agree. For the harder part (Or non-negotiable part), they will leave it to a later date by kicking the can down the road. USA, on the other hand, back by strong internal market, strong consumer spending, and strong job creation, has been breaking records after records on the stock market, with their major indexes at all time high. "Neh" supporters (me included) that say a major correction is coming did not get their wish this quarter.

DJI ended at 28538, a rise of 1622 points (+6.03%) compared to 3Q. For Singapore, STI ended at 3222, an increase of 103 points (+3.30%) compared to last quarter. Stock market has generally been on a up trend for Q4, with investors buoyed by a stronger than expected resilient US market and China economy slow down that was not as steep as expected. Defensive counter such as reits and high yield stocks continue the up trend of last quarter, helped by Feds cutting of interest rates and yield compression as players chase higher returns in safer equities.

I still firmly believe that after 10 years of bull charge, it is time for the market to take a breather, considering the global economic sediments and the limits of how much internal consumption can help the USA economy. As such, I will avoid buying in US market for now and will look to liquidate my position when the counters on hand reached my target price. For the SG market, I will still continue with purchase in Reits and Business Trusts as some of the counters yield are just too attractive to resist.

With 2019 ending, it is time for a review against my 3 year plan (New Investment Strategy 2017 - Growing Passive Income) set back in 2017 and below are my result:

Original 2017-2019 plan:

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts
2. Portfolio Yield to be 1.50% in 2017, 2.50% in 2018, 3.75% in 2019.

End 2019 result:

1. 60.35% Equity, 39.65% Reits/Trusts
2. Portfolio Yield at 1.27% in 2017, 1.42% in 2018, 2.44% in 2019 (+1.02% from 2018, but miss 2019 3.75% target)

Verdict: Miss Target

Below is my end 2019 portfolio snapshot:

Overall, 2019 has been a pretty good year for me. Managed to grow my portfolio value 101.94% with capital injection. On the dividend front, I have collected 125.09% more compared to last year. Re-balancing my portfolio is not as easy as expected, with dead weights such as Noble Group and Linc Energy around. For my next 3 years investment plan, you can refer here. I will be focus on building up my portfolio yield with more Reits and Trusts, returning to my main focus of building passive income. Anyway, below are my transactions for this quarter:

Transaction 1: Sold all Danaher shares in October.

The recent GE Pharma acquisition and the spin off of Envista shares has caused Danaher to run up ~35% since my buy in price. With the target price reached, I decided to cash in and take profit with the trade war going on in the background with no signs of ending. Better to have the cash in hand for better opportunities later when it arise.

Transaction 2: Bought in two batches of Eagle H Trust in November and December.

With the Queen Mary Long Beach ship saga going on with the high repair costs cited in reports (which the management subsequently refuted), the suspicious low vendor buy in price of the hotel properties which later was valued at a much higher IPO value, the significant major shareholders selling their shares at a low price through married deals and the quarterly results that missed the target marginally, the stock took a plunge of ~30% to reach a all time low of USD$0.440 at the start of November. However, with me viewing the other freehold hotel properties as assets of value, this counter seems oversold. At $0.440, if the prospectus dividend is to be maintained, it will give a yield of ~13.6%, which was too good to be true. Well, I bought in these 2 batches with the view that even if the vendor decides to write off Queen Mary, the counter should be worth at least a much higher price than $0.44 (IMO, likely $0.65 is a fair value).

Transaction 3: Bought in one batch of IREIT Global in December.

Well, for this trade, the main purpose is to make up the total shares to the minimum requirement for SGX Securities Borrowing and Lending. With the yield at ~7%, nothing much need to be said.

Transaction 4: Bought in one batch of HPH Trust in December.

2 more years till their 5 years 5B HKD debt reduction initiative (2017 - 2021) ends. Well, I thought it is a good time to start slowly buying in since the yield is good at ~8%. Better to start accumulating slowly early than miss the boat when their debt reduction initiative ends and dividend is increased.

That is all for now. See you all in Q1 2020 update and thank you for reading thus far. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year. Stay healthy and may God Bless with a good year ahead~