4Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

It is the time of the year again where we take stock of what we have done and how we have performed. COVID-19 issues have taken a back seat now that countries around the world have started opening their borders since Jun 2022. China has dropped their long standing COVID Zero policy and remove their tight control on virus management starting Dec 2022. Residents within China cheered this move but globally, analyst still remains skeptical due to the usage of only vaccines developed in China, which is less effective than the ones developed by Pfizer or Modena. Now that China begins to open up, they are highly likely going to face a surge in infection rate, overwhelming their medical system and a high death rate among the elderly (which is what many countries faced during the early stage of COVID-19 pandemic 2 years ago). Russia Ukraine war is still on-going. US Federal interest rate has hiked by 4.25% in 2022, with forecast to raise another 0.75% in 2023. 2022 sure does not end on a good note, at least not something investors will cheer about.

For myself, business trip has re-started in the second half of the year, potentially exposing myself to other variants of COVID-19 in other countries. Thank God for keeping me safe, I still have not contracted the virus yet so far.

DJI ended at 33147, an increase of 4872 points (+17.23%) compared to 3Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3251, an increase of 121 points (+3.86%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market has the 3 big banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC accounting for 43.5% of STI weightage) to thank for, keeping the index stable and not fall like dominos in other countries. Overall, USA market welcome investors return to companies that largely outperform expectation but for the tech companies, they are still out in the wild (As seen DJI +17% vs Q3, compared to NASDAQ -1% vs Q3). Singapore market this quarter are relatively stagnant as the banking counters did not gain much, and the REITs are taking a beating due to the increase interest rate. For Q4, the investor community remains jittery over the potential of a world recession in 2023, with USA a 70% chance in entering a recession, up from 65% last forecasted in November.

With 2022 drawing to a close, it is time for the annual review against my 3 year plan (Next 3 years (2020 - 2022) Investment Plan) set back in Nov 2019. Below are my result:

Original 2020-2022 plan:

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts
2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.50% in 2020, 4.20% in 2021, 4.80% in 2022.

End 2022 result:

1. 55.55% Equity, 44.45% Reits/Trusts
2. 79.85% SG Equity, 20.15% USA Equity
3. Portfolio Yield at 3.58% in 2022 (+0.51% from 2021, but miss 2022 4.80% target)

Verdict: Miss Target

Below is my end 2022 portfolio snapshot:

Total dividend received in 2022: $5,655.22 (~$471.26/month)

With market retreating, if you look closely, opportunities awaits. I am closely looking at some of the USA REITS listed on SGX. Investors has been selling them due to the high interest rate the REITS are paying in US dollars and the potential of USA entering recession, affecting future yield distribution. Prices has dropped to an unprecedented low levels that most counter are on a 0.5 Price to Book ratio, with dividend as high as 15% yield! I believe most companies are sound and if you can wait for 3 years for this down cycle to recover, you will likely stand to reap the benefits. Now, enough talking, below are my transaction for this quarter:

Transaction 1: Sold 1 batch Man Utd shares in December.

Partly cashing out since Glazer announced commencing strategic alternatives with a possibility of a total sale. Their appointed advisor has placed a target of 6-7 billion pounds. Personally, I think the final price will be between 3-4 billion pounds (3.6 - 4.8 billion USD) which translates to $22 - $29.20. We shall see in time what is the outcome.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Visa shares in December.

Long term investment with the recent drop in share price. Visa has been buying back their shares every quarter and with such a cash cow generating machine, if you have holding power, share price are bound to increase in the long term with a smaller pool of shares in the market as time goes on.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Prime US REIT shares in December.

USA REITS listed on SGX has been given a hammering in the last 4 months, with the Feds aggressively increasing interest rates, leading to a declining pool of cash available for distribution. In addition, USA is now forecasted at 70% potential in entering a recession in 2023, further diluting investor appetite for such REITS. However, I find Prime US REIT to be sound, not highly geared (38.7%) and their portfolio have a decent occupancy rate. At current price, this will equate to a 15% dividend yield. Buying in to ride the once in a lifetime opportunity. Plus, they have just launched the Distribution Reinvestment Plan. Time to grab more free shares.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch Mapletree Industrial Trust shares in December.

Long term investment as the manager has the history of growing distribution and Net Asset Value. If you have holding power, the share price will rise with time.

That is all for now. See you all in Q1 2023 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Beware! Lots of scammers on Carousell

Experience Sharing:

Recently, I have listed an item on Carousell to sell. Thinking it is relatively safe plus I have a good experience using the app 2 years ago, I trust the buyers are genuine and trustworthy. I was wrong. It seems that the platform are now quite full of scammers. Here is how they operate:

Scammer 1: Contacted you through the app chat they are interested in the product. Tell you that they are unable to meet up and will like to arrange their own courier. They will be paying using the Carousell app payment system. Then they share with you a screenshot that to complete the payment, they will need your (seller) email. You will receive an email that payment has been made (Alert 1: this email is not sent from the usual carousell.com domain). This email will ask you to click a link which will direct you to an address not from Carousell, asking you for your credit card information to receive payment (Alert 2: Why do they need your CC information? There is already your own wallet in the Carousell app they can transfer the money to).

Scammer 2: Same mode of operation as scammer 1, asking for your email with a Carousell screenshot that says will need the seller email to complete the payment. This time, this account is only just registered 1 day old. (Alert 1)

Scammer 3: Interested in the product and asking to arrange their own courier. This account is just registered a few hours old (Alert 1) and from Lobang (I guess somewhere in India?) (Alert 2)

Scammer 4: Asking me to Telegram him instead of chatting through the Carousell app (Alert 1).

These all happened within 1 day. Naturally, I did not disclose any private information and reported these accounts to Carousell. All of these accounts are subsequently suspended with 2-18 hours.

Anyway, for genuine buyers, they will not need your emails to complete the purchase. Everything will be settled inside the Carousell app and you will receive genuine emails from the Carousell.com domain.

Looks like need to be more vigilant when listing items on Carousell now and not get scammed.

17th Year Blog Anniversary

All right, this space has been alive for the past 17 years and is still kicking. Times changed looking at the past history. From student life, to work, to married life and to parenthood. Things we blog about also changed with times. From everyday life, to touring around the world, to kids and to investment with aim of sustainable income. Wishing everyone good health and smooth sailing ahead to navigate this challenging times. Not to forget, giving thanks to Him whom have bless us with everything we need and good health. May I pray that may He continue to keep my family safe and healthy, and guide us in everything we do.

Some Statistic:

Page Count: 77648 +4370

Year on Year increase: +136 +3.21%

Side note: Manchester United Glazer has finally open to the idea to sell the club. Hopefully can close within the next months. I doubt anyone will bid 6 billion pounds to match what they are looking for. 3 - 4 billion pounds (3.6 - 4.8 billion USD) is a more feasible target in my opinion. We shall see.

Next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Investment Plan

2022 has become a year of upheaval. First the euphoria of post COVID-19 when countries started re-opening and economy starts picking up. Then came the Russia-Ukraine war where it drove up the prices of almost everything, sending inflation rates sky rocketing and countries on the heels of raising interest rates to tame inflation. Now, investors are in jitters that interest rates are increasing at too fast a pace that will send economies into recession and in the process sending equities on a downhill slippery slope!

Again, it is unlikely I will reach my 2022 goal set back in 2019. My portfolio dividend yield this year will probably be in the 3.2% to 3.5% range, way off the ambitious target of 4.8%. Re-balancing a portfolio with some dead weight stocks is not easy after all, while waiting for Noble Group, KrisEnergy and Eagle H Trust to officially delist from SGX. At least I managed to increase my dividend yield from 2.44% from 3 years ago.

Now, back to my main objective of investment - earning passive income. Again, I will be using the insurance projected returns as a guide, which typically ranges from 3.25% to 4.75% currently. For the next 3 year, I will set a target to get a better yield than the insurance projected returns (Example: 4.8%). I think this will be a very challenging target as I have never achieve it before. Well, here you are, the next 3 years (2023 - 2025) Plan:

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts
2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.80% in 2023, 4.30% in 2024, 4.80% in 2025.

I will likely to continue load up on high dividend yield REITS (Looking at US Reits listed on SGX) and Singtel (if price is below $3.00) till I reached at least 10k shares each counter, so that these counters can participate in the Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) Program. Other potential target also include DBS if it fall below $35.00, MIT and FCT.

Fun @ Singapore Zoo

Time flies! The last time *OEE* is at the zoo, it was 19 months ago, where he has to be carried and had no interest in seeing the animals. This time, he gets to walk around (most of the time insisting not to hold daddy and mummy hands) and spent time observing animals in the enclosure. He can now sit through the showtimes looking at the shows instead of dozing off comfortably in daddy's arms. *OEE* also has a particular interest with the orange trams, and would stop and point at every tram that comes along the way! Thank God for the great weather where the sun is kept hidden behind clouds during the time we are in the zoo. And yes, Kids under 3 is still Free Admission.

Nothing much has changed in the zoo. The new developments are the expansion of Kidsworld where the new facility is currently under construction. Most of their toilets are newly renovated and the route to the zoo from the multi-storey carpark has changed, with the Bird Paradise opening next year. We happened to see wild monkeys in the zoo this time, and visitors are advised to stay away from them, least the monkeys start getting aggressive with the uninvited attention. A great, fun day at the Singapore Zoo with *OEE*!

Like a boss inspecting a peacock running across

Looking at the majestic lion with interest

3Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

What a combination of disaster. Russia war with Ukraine still grinds on, stubbornly high inflation has lead to central bank raising rates (0.75%) 3 times in a row. Businesses are forecasting recession and started laying off employees. Chances of USA entering recession in the next 12 months has increased from 40% to 52% just a few days ago. Market has been grinding down for the past 4 weeks with no ends in sight. What a disaster!

DJI ended at 28725, a decrease of 2050 points (-6.66%) compared to 2Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3130, an increase of 28 points (+0.90%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market bucks the global trends and are impacted lesser due to STI having a high weightage for banking counters (accounting for 42.5% of STI weightage), as rising interest rates is a positive for banks since they stand to earn more profits from the widening NIM. Ever since Putin started the war on 24-Feb-2022, DJI has lost 7613 points (-20.95%) compared to the end of 2021, while STI has increased 7 points (+0.22%) instead. For this quarter, I am just sitting ducks collecting dividends and taking opportunistic additions for counters that I deem have high growth potential:

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Singtel shares in July.

Rejoice! India Airtel has turnaround from loss to profits as competition eases and competitors started raising their product offering prices. Singtel and Grab GXS Bank has launched in August and is a positive catalyst for additional profits. Will continue to add if shares price is below $3.00.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch HPH Trust shares in July.

Management has guided they are continuing their debt reduction plan at a tune of HKD $1.00 billion a year. With the rising interest rate and plans for expansion of berths in the next few years, the distributable amount is expected to increase. Buy in today to enjoy the fruits later.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch China Everbright Water shares in July.

Last buy in for this counter as it has hit my internal target investable amount. Expecting China will continue to focus on Industrial Wastewater Management as the economy develops. This counter should do well in the long term as they continue to apply for price adjustment (increase) for their treatment services to combat inflation.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch OxPay Financial shares in July.

I continue to be sold on the company plans for riding on the digital economy wave as a financial services technology platform provider. The only obstacle now is if the company is able to onboard more partners to use their service and expand regionally. If they succeed, it will be a cash generating machine similar to VISA.

Transaction 5: Bought 1 batch Man Utd shares in July.

With poor performance, guess the end of road is near for Man Utd Glazer to sell off all their shares. Recently, news article reported that 3.75 billion pounds will be enough to entice the Glazer family to sell. Now, I am just waiting for the White Knight to appear.... 

That is all for now. See you all in Q4 2022 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Four Points by Sheraton Riverview Staycation

With the opening of Singapore borders, the hotel room rates are constantly on a northward trajectory since May 2022. Not wanting to spend too much money on staycation, we chose the Four Points by Sheraton Riverview since it is the cheapest Marriott hotel available in Singapore and we get to have our breakfast and dinner with the package. However, God seems to have other plans for us. 2 weeks before our stay, we received an email from the hotel that says our package has been dis-continued with immediate effect! In return, they offered us a reduced rate, changed our room from twins to King, allowed us a late check-out at 6pm, and gave us a $96 dining credit since we cannot take the Mookata counter offer as we have a toddler with us. Thank God! =)

We arrived a bit early than the official check-in time at 12pm and was informed our room is ready. Check in was smooth and we got the City View King Room. Room is clean and lovely but since this is the cheapest among the Marriott Hotels, don't expect much. We need to call the housekeeping for extra towels and bath robes (Not given, you have to request for it). Not wanting to waste more time, we headed straight to the pool on the 5th floor. Truthfully, the pool is quite small and don't expect it to accommodate more then 8 people. No one is manning the towel counter and it is pretty much self-service.

At night, we took a stroll along the Singapore River since the Alexandra Park Connector is easily accessible via the 4 Points eatery. Night scenery is not bad and we chanced upon fireworks display from the National Day Parade Rehearsal.

Breakfast buffet has a good spread of food. The downside is that the 4 Points eatery sitting capacity is not big. If you will like some time to have your breakfast, do come early. The café is still full with hotel guests right to the end of breakfast time at 10am.

To use our dining credits, we tried their "Old Time Bak Kut Teh", "Nasi Goreng Istimewa", and "Signature Baby Rock Lobster Laksa". The Bak Kut Teh in my opinion is not worth the price. I find the rice is dry and hard, the meat is too fat and not as tender. The soup is also on the peppery side. For the Baby Rock Lobster Laksa, tasted not bad with the thick Bee Hoon and they served you a full size baby lobster cut into two halves. For the Nasi Goreng, tasted not too bad as well. I personally find the chicken is the best among the ingredients.

That basically sums up our staycation. Wonder when will the next staycation be?

2Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

Russia's war with Ukraine slowly grinds on into the 5th month, with failure not an option to Putin. With this war, food, crop and oil price escalated, causing high inflation unseen in many countries globally. To combat high inflation, central banks have been aggressively raising interest rate (June - 0.75%, forecast July - 0.75%, forecast September - 0.5%), hoping to cool the economy down. This however, have a damping effect on equity, as rising interest rate means a drop in consumer consumption (Yes, all your loans on floating rate are going to get more expensive!) which has a high risk of tipping the economy into recession. Currently, analyst is predicting a 40% chance of USA entering recession in the next 12 months and this is reflective in NASDAQ (entered bear 2 months ago); S&P 500 (entered bear 2 weeks ago); DJI (narrowly avoided bear 1 week ago by 400 points).

FYI: Bear Market refers to a drop of at least 20% from the index peak.

With the war seemingly not ending anytime soon (only God knows when and how this will end), let us spend a few mins in prayer for the people of Ukraine. May God in His sovereign will put an end to the Russian act of aggression and this unjustified war. May God in His mercy bring light to the people of Ukraine suffering the effect of war in this dark hour. May God also bless the people of the world with great health and protection against the Covid-19 virus that is ravaging the face of the Earth. Amen

Face with market uncertainty and volatility, I guess it is time we go back to the company fundamentals, where good and sound company will eventually pull through any crisis. DJI ended at 30775, a decrease of 3903 points (-11.25%) compared to 1Q 2022. For Singapore, STI ended at 3102, an decrease of 306 points (-8.98%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market are not spared from the high inflation rate concerns and rising interest rates, moving in line with the USA market, though for banking counters (accounting for 43.3% of STI weightage), rising interest rates is a positive for them as they stand to earn more profits from the widening NIM. For this quarter, not much actions from me except taking opportunistic additions for counters that I deem have high growth potential:

Transaction 1: Bought 2 batch Grab shares in April and May.

US investors still seem to not have confidence in Grab, continuing dumping its share to an all time low of $2.32 on 26 May 2022. For me, given they have won the digital bank license for Singapore and Malaysia speaks volume. Anyway, Grab will be focusing on returning to profitability by cutting down on consumer incentives. From end user point of view, this has seem to take effect after 19-May as the discounts given is not as high as per 3 months ago. Example: Self collect on GrabFood is now only entitled to 15% discount compared to previous 20%, unless you purchase their subscription, then you are entitled to 20% discount. Anyway, GxS bank is preparing to start operation soon in Singapore in the next few months. Hopefully, this will contribute to their bottom line profit.

Transaction 2: Exit Amara totally in June (at a loss).

High number of director resignations, plus the review for their flagship hotel in SG is not that great on major hotel booking websites, guess I better run first before more problems start surfacing. Having held this counter for close to 9 years, I don't think the management will be privatizing the company anytime soon.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch OxPay Financial shares in June.

I got won over by this up and coming business plan. Basically, they provide Merchant Payment Services (MPS) and Digital Commerce Enabling Solutions (DCES). Whenever a customer uses their system for payment, they will get a portion of the fee (~0.5%) as payment. Think of the card terminals and the software facilitating the payment between the customer, merchant and their banks. As long as their customer base is huge, this should be a stable cash generating machine to provide dividends.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch DBS shares in June.

Interest rates are rising, which will increase DBS Net Interest Margin (Profits) due to increasing loan interest rate. It was already reported a few days ago that all SG banks has revised their home loan interest rate up. Buying to hold for long term with the hindsight that business are growing and dividends declared are increasing yearly.

Marriott has restarted their dividend payout, and share buybacks will soon follow. I was right about Marriott TP. It did rise to $190.30 (>$185 which I predicted) on 20-Apr-22, before Putin's war destroyed everything. Oh well, guess I have to hold the shares a little longer. That is all for now. See you all in Q3 2022 update and thank you for reading thus far.

Daycation - Day out at the South (and East)

Since there is a long weekend and RL has invited us to visit her at the Westin Singapore while A is busy with helping out his friend wedding, we decided to bring *OEE* out to meet AM and play at the Westin infinity pool. Unlike JW Marriott South Beach, the water at the infinity pool is not that cold (and not that windy), which we are glad and *OEE* and AM have fun playing with the water all to themselves. Unfortunately, the infinity pool does not have a baby area and any child that is inside the pool needs constant supervision. View from the top is not bad, as we have a perfect view of the Singapore Flyer, the National Stadium and the sea.

Lunch was at Suntec Food Republic Blanco Beef Noodle and we are presently surprised how much Suntec has changed. Half the shops there are not what we remembered from years ago. The little ones are going cranky after lunch as it approaches their nap time and we went back to the hotel for them to take their nap. Dinner was at Changi Jewel Dian Xiao Er (An impromptu decision) where A joined us after the wedding lunch. It was really rare to see so many people out in the Jewel mall after the COVID restriction was lifted last week. Overall, a day well spent.

St Regis Staycation + Botanic Garden Visit

This is our 2nd staycation at St Regis after 8 months with *mds* and *OEE*. Little did we know that we are assigned to the same hotel room as last time. Room 1506, I will remember that. Same as last time, we chose St Regis for staycation was due to the promotion "Live Exquisite 32-Hour Stay" on offer:

• Early check-in at 10:00am
• Late check-out at 6:00pm
• Epicurean breakfast at Brasserie Les Saveurs for 2 adults
• Signature St. Regis Butler Service

However, this time round, one of the services on offer has changed:

• Complimentary (unlimited) drinks is only offered based on arrival and during 6am - 11am.

So after COVID-19, they have removed the all day complimentary drink services, which is kind of sad as we are all looking forward to their hot chocolate!

Same view as before. Nice scenery!

This time round, we got a fruit platter instead of brownies

As we have some time in the afternoon, we decided to bring *OEE* to botanic garden to have a little evening walk. First day after mask wearing is optional outdoors. Still not many people around and the garden air is refreshing after the rain

We had a good walk before having porridge at Mui Kee and took a Grab back to hotel as *OEE* is too tired to walk further. Daddy ended up 抱抱 *OEE* to travel from point to point. Next morning was spent at the pool after breakfast and *OEE* really enjoys his time water playing. Lunch was ordered from Grab before we checked out at 6pm. 

1Q 2022 Investment Strategy Update

2022 started on a high but soon got dragged down over worries of Russia's troop built up at Ukraine border (threat of war) and a more aggressive Federal interest rate hike. Putin finally put his invasion plan into action on 24-Feb-2022 and with it, caused the sharp increase in Crude Oil Price. With Russia's miscalculation of a quick war and facing massive casualty rate, the situation has potentially turned into a prolong War of Attrition, with the Ukrainians putting up a good fight with weapons supplied by NATO and the Americans. Due to Russia-Ukraine war, the food, crop and oil price escalated, potentially halting global GDP growth as the world comes out from the shadow of COVID-19 lockdown, and in the worst case scenario, bringing some countries back into recession again.

Let us spend the next few mins in prayer for the people of Ukraine. May God bless the safety of the Ukrainians. May God in His will stop the Russian act of aggression and bring peace to the land once again. May God also in His mercy provide the displaced people strength and hope in the midst of suffering. Amen.

DJI ended at 34678, an decrease of 1660 points (-4.56%) compared to 4Q 2021. For Singapore, STI ended at 3408, an increase of 285 points (+9.12%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market largely outperform DJI due to the exposure to bank equity counters (DBS, UOB and OCBC accounted for 43.3% of STI weightage), which rises in expectation of increase in Federal interest rate. For this quarter, not much actions from me except taking the opportunity to accumulate more shares during the correction period for potentially good companies with room for growth:

Transaction 1: Bought 1 batch Man Utd shares in January. 

Buying at a low price of $14.17, potentially looking to sell off at around $20. Now with the sale of Chelsea looming in the next few weeks, the final bid value could be used as a reference comparison of how much Man Utd is worth. At the minimum, Man Utd should be valued on par with Chelsea, if not more.

Transaction 2: Bought 3 batches Grab shares in January and March. 

Investors seem to not have confidence in Grab, dumping its share when it reported its first financial result, which is below estimations due to massive incentives given to their driver and delivery partners during the quarter period. On the other hand. I bought in and average down as I believe Grab should be doing ok once they start monetizing their Ads Platform and start their digital banking operation in 2022. Time will tell if I am right. Anyway, my position in Grab is not big.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Danaher shares in January. 

Accumulate good company during the correction period. This counter is a free cash flow generating machine. I believe its share price should shoot up once they start acquiring companies again.

Transaction 4: Bought 1 batch Mapletree Industrial Trust shares in March. 

Planning to accumulate and keep MIT shares for the long term as they have a good track record of raising their NAV and DPU.

That is all for now. See you all in Q2 2022 update and thank you for reading thus far.

DUCKtours

[20-Jan-2022] Used up the last of our Singapore Rediscover vouchers before they expires on 31-Dec-2021 to purchase the DUCKtours on Klook to bring *OEE* out for a land and sea excursion. The whole trip lasted about 50 mins exploring the Singapore River (20mins) and a road trip around the central district (25mins). Truthfully speaking, if not for the vouchers to defray some of the cost, we would not have gone on this trip by ourselves as the tickets are quite expensive, with the adult costing $34.40/pax and child costing $26.40/pax after 20% discount.

Here is a map of the whole tour for your reference: DUCKtours Map

Well, our trip for the day can be considered anything but ordinary. We can only marvel by God's plan how things turn out all right in the end for us. Thank God for His Blessings on us! Things doesn't start out well for us as we cannot find a taxi on Grab to take us to Suntec City. In the end, we called a taxi on the ComfortDelgro App at 50% surge compared to a normal metered price. With little time to spare, we got onto the taxi at 14:13 and alighted at 14:41, with 19mins to spare to make our way to the counter for the 15:00 tour. Well, not too bad... until we found out the taxi brought us to the "Sands Expo & Convention Centre" instead of "Suntec Convention Centre"! Oh No! We made a mad dash to the MRT carrying *OEE* to take 1 MRT stop down to promenade, praying all along that whatever happens, may His Will be done and we will accept the outcome! I am glad that the past Army Training carrying that 10Kg Signal Set did not go to waste as the experience gained was put to good use today. Hah! After dashing up the MRT escalator and following the signs in Suntec, we finally saw this big DUCKtour Sign that says 30m ahead and time check 14:59. Ok... we are not late yet, only to find a sign displaying a re-direction order: "Due to COVID-19 measures, please turn right at Sephora and proceed out the Suntec entrance for the DUCKtour counter" What! Ok. we will definitely be late. Well, whatever His Will be done! We followed the re-direction and finally found the DUCKtour counter. Quite right, the DUCK has gone 4 mins ago. We explained our situation to the employees at the counter and they graciously ask us to wait for a while as they go check the system if they can assign us at a later timing. At this moment... it started pouring heavily, real heavily..... As the staff came out, he asked us to line up at the ticket booth, and his colleague will attend to us, meaning there is Hope! Cut the long story short, we are assigned to the 4pm slot, and by 3.40pm, the rain has stopped and it is bright and sunny again! On hindsight, maybe the Lord wanted us to enjoy the ride with *OEE* and hence, we miss the 3pm trip which will get us caught in the heavy rain with no good photos to take for memory.

Anyway, below are some photos that you will see on the "Sea trip"! Thank God for His wonderful Blessing on us!

4Q 2021 Investment Strategy Update

With the blink of an eye, one year flew past. Focus of 2021 is still much about COVID-19, not the original virus, but its mutation. We have the Delta version, and now the Omicron variant, which is less serious, but more infectious. Countries are transiting to endemic states, though border controls for international leisure are pretty much still in place, with the exception of vaccinated travel lanes for business. Hospitality sector and airlines are estimated to return to pre-COVID levels in the next 2 years, depending on when this pandemic wave is over. Experts are currently debating if the Omicron variant will be the last of COVID-19, that will ensure its survival among us humans.

For me, some big changes are happening to my company. For one, they will be implementing the flexi-work arrangement, which employees are only required to return to office 2 days out of a week of your choice. For the rest of the 3 days, employees are to Work From Home. We have also just shifted to a new smaller office unit and the new pantry looks exciting, with better drinks and snacks stock up. Organization too need to adopt to the new norms.

DJI ended at 36338, an increase of 2495 points (+7.37%) compared to 3Q 2021. For Singapore, STI ended at 3123, an increase of 37 points (+1.19%) compared to last quarter. Singapore market has lagged DJI again, not matching the growth seen at the USA market. For Q4, the investor community are pretty hyped that the world seems to be moving out from the shadows of COVID. Airline and hospitality sector are hitting their annual highs. Government are looking at finally ending budget stimulus and raising interest rates as economy are returning to their pre-COVID levels. USA in particular, are increasingly likely to start raising interest rates in 2022.

With 2021 drawing to a close, it is time for the annual review against my 3 year plan (Next 3 years (2020 - 2022) Investment Plan) set back in Dec 2019. Below are my result:

Original 2020-2022 plan: 

1. 50% Equity, 50% Reits/Trusts 
2. Portfolio Dividend Yield to be 3.50% in 2020, 4.20% in 2021, 4.80% in 2022.

End 2021 result: 

1. 59.81% Equity, 40.19% Reits/Trusts 
2. 81.60% SG Equity, 18.40% USA Equity 
3. Portfolio Yield at 3.07% in 2021 (+0.42% from 2020, but miss 2021 4.20% target)

Verdict: Miss Target

Below is my end 2021 portfolio snapshot:

Total dividend received in 2021: $4,335.27 (~$361.27/month)

2021 continues to be a challenging year. All I can do is to have patience and wait for the norms to return, so that investment can bear fruits at the time when I bought them at their pandemic lows. Thank God for blessing my family with good health and providing all that we need. Thank God that I still managed to grow my overall portfolio value and dividend returns. We need to start planning early for retirement passive income, which requires time to build up slowly brick by brick. Now, enough talking, below are my transaction for this quarter: 

Transaction 1: Sold 1 batch Marriott shares in October. 

Time to cash in as the stock raise to $160. Cant resist the high price and decide to lock in some profits. The next batch to sell will probably be the time when Marriott restart their dividend and share buybacks. I estimate by then, the price should hit $185. Lets see if I am spot on.

Transaction 2: Bought 1 batch Danaher shares in October. 

As the community are looking at re-opening of economy in October, medical shares got battered as they deem COVID are soon to be over and there will be lesser demand for COVID testing and related services. They are proved wrong a few weeks later with the Omicron emergence. Anyway, bought in this counter for the long term during the price drop for the company culture of using free cash flow to continue investing and acquire companies for growth.

Transaction 3: Bought 1 batch Visa shares in November. 

With Omicron ravaging countries rapidly in November, financial counters took a hit as countries re-impose lockdowns and investors start selling their position and took profits accumulated over the past few months. For me, I bought in more shares for the long term during the dip due to Visa generous free cash flow and share buyback program. With lesser supply, price are bound to rise over time. Simple theory.

Transaction 4: Bought 2 batch Grab shares in November. 

What excitement to see our fellow SG company debut in NASDAQ? Well, I personally believe Grab will be able to start making a profit after further fine-tuning their business model. Imagine the vast potential Grab can tap once they start monetizing their Ad outreach through their app and the start of their digital bank partnership with Singtel in 2022? Well, we will have more clarity once they start reporting their first financial result since listing. In the mean time, I just took some position when the share tanks. 

Transaction 5: Bought 1 batch Singtel shares in December. 

Continue accumulating Singtel shares in the face of price weakness due to pandemic and international border closure. Once things start to normalize, Singtel price should recover to at least $3.00. Anyway, India Bharti Airtel has bottom out and start turning in a profit after 5 years of brutal price war locally. This should help Singtel with its underlying profit and resumption of generous dividend.

Transaction 6: Bought 1 batch DBS shares in December. 

Continue accumulating DBS shares until USA starts raising interest rates. I believe current price of $32 still do not reflect DBS true strength, after they have acquired stakes in China Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank in April this year and taken over India Lakshmi Vilas Bank in Nov 2020. Personally, I believe DBS will make record profits for the next 4 quarter at least once interest rates begin to rise.

Transaction 7: Bought 1 batch China Everbright Water shares in December.

Continue accumulating China Everbright Water shares for their annual increase in dividend, yearly winning bids for government projects and most importantly, China push for sustainability. With this, wastewater treatment will be one of the main country focus which I cannot see a reason how this company can run into trouble, with such a strong backing from the parent company listed in HKSE. With the current $0.305 price, this work out to be a dividend yield of 6.55%.

Well, that is all for now. See you all in Q1 2022 update and thank you for reading thus far (I know this is such a long posting). Wishing everyone a Happy New Year. Stay healthy, stay safe, stay mask up and may God Bless you with a good year ahead~